How is that “Defunding the Police” Working Out for You?

This article was provided exclusively to the New York Analysis of Policy and Government by the distinguished retired judge, John H. Wilson

There is a popular parody of the typical advertisement for action movies which begins, “In a world gone mad…” or words to that effect. Lately, for many of us, it may feel as if that parody has come to life.

As a direct result of the “protests” which spread across the world in the wake of the death of George Floyd, more than one municipality has decided that “defunding” their police department and curtailing enforcement of various public order laws is necessary to bring a halt to police brutality. Let us see how that policy is working across the nation.

In Minneapolis, the City Council has proposed an ordinance which seeks to replace the Police Department with a “Department of Community Safety and Violence Prevention Department.” This new Department will ” have responsibility for public safety services prioritizing a holistic, public health-oriented approach,” with a Director who “will have non-law enforcement experience in community safety services, including but not limited to public health and/or restorative justice approaches.”

While this proposal, unanimously approved by the Minneapolis City Council, must be reviewed by a public commission before it can be added to the next ballot for approval by the voters, many of those voters decided to put into practice the philosophy of the Minneapolis City Council in advance.

As a homeless encampment grew in size in Powderhorn Park, which is located within the City of Minneapolis, “residents there have vowed to avoid calling the cops, feeling that doing so could put people of color in danger. But now with hundreds of outsiders flooding the park — drawing in more car traffic, including drug dealers, and resulting in at least two overdoses — the neighbors are facing a moral dilemma.” In fact, since the homeless have made Powderhorn Park their home, among a host of other crimes, three rapes have been reported in the span of two weeks.

As one resident of the area stated, while discussing the increase in crime, “We’re all liberals…We’re all sympathetic and would love for these people to have dignified housing and to get the social services that the city, the state, the county is failing to support. But this is not the answer.”

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Meanwhile, in the less liberal neighborhoods of Minneapolis, according to the Wall Street Journal, “Minneapolis residents in some areas still recovering from rioting and unrest are forming community watch and security groups, some bearing firearms, to fight a surge of crime.”

Much like Chicago, Minneapolis has seen a recent increase in gun violence. The reason? “Minneapolis police have stopped making as many street stops as they made previously.”

Speaking of Chicago, while Mayor Lori Lightfoot has not expressly supported defunding the police, her intentions appear to be the same – “what I believe what we’re really talking about is what I ran on, and why it’s so important that we follow through on a commitment to the investments in black and brown neighborhoods that haven’t seen any investment, truly, in decades,” she said …“What people are saying, I think, is in too many communities across our city, particularly black and brown Chicago, what they see every day is a manifestation of government is the police…”

And how is this philosophy working out in the Windy City? “Six months into the year, 329 people have been killed in Chicago, an increase of about 34% from the 246 homicides during the same period last year, according to police. Shootings in that period rose by about 42%, from 978 in 2019 to 1384 in 2020. Shootings across the city increased by 75% last month alone, with 424 shootings in June 2020 compared to 242 in June 2019, according to police statistics. Murders in Chicago rose by 78%, with 89 reported in June 2020 compared to 50 in the same month last year.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.