Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SYRIA

The United States is applauding the Executive Council of the world’s chemical weapons watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), for its adoption today of a decision that condemns Syria’s use of chemical weapons, according to a statement released by the State Department on Thursday. The OPCW sets out clear measures for the Syrian government to follow, including: the declaration of facilities where chemical weapons used in the Ltamenah attacks were developed, produced, stockpiled, and stored for delivery; the declaration of its remaining chemical weapons stockpile and production facilities; and the resolution of the outstanding issues with its initial declaration. The Syrian regime’s failure to fulfill these measures, according to the report, will result in a recommendation to the OPCW’s full body, the Conference of States Parties, to take further action.

A few months ago, in April 2020, the OPCW Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) concluded that there were reasonable grounds to believe that Syrian authorities were responsible for three chemical weapons attacks on Ltamenah, Syria during March 2017. These attacks preceded the more deadly sarin attack in nearby Khan Shaykhun by less than two weeks, and were part of the same concerted campaign of terror perpetrated by the Assad regime.

VENEZUELA

The Venezuelan people are the ones who must restore democracy, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. In a news briefing on Friday he said that: “…we will do all the things that we can do, which includes not only the economic pressure that has been brought to bear on the Maduro regime and the pressure that’s been brought to bear on Cuba to withdraw their security forces from Venezuela, but we have also, importantly, built out a global coalition to try and help the Venezuelan people achieve their objectives… we see South American countries as part of the Lima Group. We now have some 60 countries that have recognized that Maduro’s days as a governor are done and that, in fact, Juan Guaido is the duly elected leader, as spoken to by the Venezuelan people. This is the process that we intend to continue to support what the Venezuelan people want.” Pompeo added that the State is closely monitoring the elections in Venezuela and that he believes the Venezuelan people themselves see what is happening and will restore democracy.

INDO-PACIFIC INITIATVE

Secretary of State Pompeo on Friday accused the Obama Administration of not taking seriously two components of the Indo-Pacific Initiative. First is the fundamental recognition of the challenge that is presented to the Indo-Pacific from the Chinese Communist Party. He said that “It’s in every dimension. It’s diplomatically, it’s economically, it’s militarily.” The second component, according to Pompeo, is the communications infrastructure. He pointed to cyber crime and the theft of intellectual property. He added that the US recognizes this will take a “true global coalition of people who understand this challenge.” Washington is working with its Five Eyes counterparts, G7 partners, ASEAN, and the Quad to create various tools to develop multilateral understandings about how to protect free and open transportation, shipping, commerce, and rule of law.

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IRAN

The United States remains very concerned about missile proliferation from the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to Pompeo, “they continue to work on their missile program in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231.” He said this is the reason Washington thinks it is so important that the world unite to extend the arms embargo that expires just a handful of months from now in the middle of October. Pompeo is concerned that it would be tragically dangerous for the region if it expires and also would create instability throughout the Middle East. Pompeo has bene working with its Gulf state partners to get them to assist the US effort to extend this arms embargo as well as providing a great deal of assistance.

“You see all kinds of U.S. sales of weapons – those are all public – and things that we can do both publicly and otherwise to help provide security in the face of an increasing capability of the Iranians to fire missiles all throughout the region, and ultimately establish a set of missile capabilities that is robust enough to defeat missile defenses throughout the region, but strike in places that go beyond even just their near neighborhood.,” said Pompeo.

During a press briefing on Friday the Secretary provided an example, saying “We watch as they continue to try and build out their space launch vehicle program. They would, of course, claim this is for a civilian purpose, to put commercial satellites up. I think the world’s smarter than that. I think the world recognizes that program as being deeply connected to their desire to have longer and longer range missile systems that they can use to hold hostage the world.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.