Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

The latest impartial report from the United Nations Secretary-General on Iran indicates that the United States was correct all along when it comes to what types of weapons Iran uses to destabilize the Middle East and foment sectarian violence and terrorism across the region.

“Let’s never accept Iran’s usual violent behavior for fear of something far worse… Let’s never submit to extortion… Let’s uphold the mission of this body to address threats to international peace and security… Let’s continue the arms embargo on Iran,” said Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. He called on the Security Council to act to exert more, not less pressure on Tehran.

According to the UN report, the weapons used to attack Saudi Arabia in September 2019 were of Iranian origin. It noted that Iran intentionally misled the world by claiming that the Houthis were responsible for the attack last September. The State Department noted that the report also concluded that arms and related materiel seized off the coast of Yemen in November 2019 and February 2020 were of Iranian origin. “The fact these items were seized outside of Iran is indicative of an arms embargo violation by Iran,” it pointed out.

At a news briefing the Secretary said that the arms embargo is not a time-limited matter, but a conditions-based matter. The US will only life the embargo when Iran acts consistently as a normal nation-state, he said.

CHINA-HONG KONG

“The Chinese Communist Party’s decision to impose draconian national security legislation on Hong Kong destroys the territory’s autonomy and one of China’s greatest achievements” according to the State Department. Within the past few years, the Department noted in a press release, Beijing has also violated its agreements with the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization, and the United Nations.

Secretary Pompeo announced that “The United States will not stand idly by while China swallows Hong Kong into its authoritarian maw. Last week, we imposed visa restrictions on CCP officials responsible for undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy. We are ending defense and dual-use technology exports to the territory. Per President Trump’s instruction, we will eliminate policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment, with few exceptions.”

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SYRIA

At the fourth Brussels conference on Syria yesterday, the United States announced almost $700 million in humanitarian assistance to support Syrians inside the country and displaced abroad, bringing the US total funding to just over $11.3 billion since the conflict began more than nine years ago.

RUSSIA

There have been many media reports this week about Moscow offering a bounty for American military. According to Pompeo, this is nothing new and the US sees these types of threats daily around the globe. He added that “…the fact that the Russians are engaged in Afghanistan in a way that’s adverse to the United States is nothing new… Some members of Congress who are out there today suggesting that they are shocked and appalled by this, they saw the same intelligence that we saw. So it would be interesting to ask them what they did when they saw whatever intelligence it is that they are referring to. They would have had access to this information as well – not just the intelligence committees, by the way – even more broadly than that.”

Russian entities, he added, have been selling small arms that have put Americans at risk there for 10 years. Money flowing to Afghanistan to support the Taliban has been going on since US went to Afghanistan almost two decades ago. The Iranians continue to undermine Washington in Afghanistan.

“This administration has taken seriously the threat from Russia. I only wish we had not had so much to clean up from the previous administration’s work to allow Russia to get on the ground in Syria, make enormous gains, interfere in elections in the United States of America under the previous administration’s watch. We’ve had a lot to clean up, and President Trump has been serious about responding to this in a way that protects America, keeps Americans safe, and every day working diligently to make sure that we keep our soldiers safe wherever any threat, whether that’s from Russia or otherwise, presents itself.,” Pompeo said.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.