Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

HONG KONG

The United States is planning to impose a cost on the decisionmakers who denied voting freedom to the people of Hong Kong if Beijing doesn’t change direction, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. In a recent interview he said that Hong Kong no longer is a highly autonomous region. “That means, “ he said, “that the behavior and the relationships that we have with Hong Kong will look more like the relationships we have with China.” There are elections scheduled to take place in Hong Kong in September. The US remains concerned that Hong Kong’s nominal leader, Carrie Lam, will not allow the elections to proceed if she believes they will not go the way she wants, which is synonymous with saying she supports Beijing’s effort to control Hong Kong. Pompeo said that if she cancelled the election it would be the “final nail in the coffin that Hong Kong is free or autonomous.

Should it be deemed necessary the US will impose costs on China by denying them the enormous financial benefit they received as a result of Hong Kong being the world’s capital center. According to Pompeo. But, he added, “We don’t want to punish the Hong Kong people. That is not our objective.” The goal, he said, is to deter China from continuing its efforts to deny freedom to peoples to whom they had previously promised to them.

CHINA

Pompeo said the US remains concerned over China’s aggressive foreign and military policies over the last two years and, especially during the last six months. “I think many countries are beginning to recognize the threat that is to their people and to their nation as a result of the nature of the Chinese Communist Party and its continued efforts to expand its reach around the world, and I’m confident that will continue to grow and the United States will lead the way in making sure that that group of freedom-loving nations, who found their nations on the idea of individual rights and human dignity, will stay together, and we will ultimately be successful delivering on those for the people of each of our democratic nations,” he said.

IRAN

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Americans sanctions against Iran appear to be working, according to Pompeo. He pointed out in a recent interview that the country had been producing three million barrels a day and this past month they were down to about 70,000 gallons a day. He also noted that the continuing threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran remains. Pompeo said it has violated a number of its nuclear commitments that it signed up for under the JCPOA. He added that the United States put resources in place to deter Iranian aggression on the ground, and that “We’ve put diplomatic power behind uniting the world in a number of ways with respect to Iran’s terrorism. We have convinced the Germans just last month to designate Hizballah. We’re working with partners all around the world to continue to constrain Iran’s capacity to ultimately get a nuclear and to limit their capabilities on missiles and terrorism as well.”

On October 2020, the Russians will be free to sell equipment to Iran. Even the Chinese will be able to sell tanks to Iran, according to Pompeo. He added that “We have a plan that we believe will successfully prevent that from happening.” Even it there is no extension on the prohibition of arms sale to Iran, the Secretary suggested that the US will use its diplomatic capability to prevent it from happening. “It’s too dangerous to the world to allow Iran, after just what would be now five years of the agreement, to be able to again arm themselves, purchase high-end weapon systems from the Russians and the Iranians, making it even more difficult for us to stop them from building out their nuclear program. It was a fundamental flaw of the JCPOA, and we’re determined to do everything we can to prevent that expiration of the arms embargo from taking place, “ Pompeo noted.

CUBA

The US Government announced the addition of seven new sub-entities to the Cuba Restricted List. These seven sub-entities disproportionately benefit the Castro dictatorship. According to the State Department, the regime uses the profits from these businesses to oppress the Cuban people and to fund its interference in Venezuela, at the expense of Cubans or private enterprise in Cuba. Among the seven sub-entities are one military-controlled financial institution, three military-owned hotels, two military-owned scuba diving centers, and one military-owned marine park for tourists. The bulk of Cuba’s tourism industry is owned and operated by the Cuban military.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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