Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

HONG KONG

The United States is planning to impose a cost on the decisionmakers who denied voting freedom to the people of Hong Kong if Beijing doesn’t change direction, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. In a recent interview he said that Hong Kong no longer is a highly autonomous region. “That means, “ he said, “that the behavior and the relationships that we have with Hong Kong will look more like the relationships we have with China.” There are elections scheduled to take place in Hong Kong in September. The US remains concerned that Hong Kong’s nominal leader, Carrie Lam, will not allow the elections to proceed if she believes they will not go the way she wants, which is synonymous with saying she supports Beijing’s effort to control Hong Kong. Pompeo said that if she cancelled the election it would be the “final nail in the coffin that Hong Kong is free or autonomous.

Should it be deemed necessary the US will impose costs on China by denying them the enormous financial benefit they received as a result of Hong Kong being the world’s capital center. According to Pompeo. But, he added, “We don’t want to punish the Hong Kong people. That is not our objective.” The goal, he said, is to deter China from continuing its efforts to deny freedom to peoples to whom they had previously promised to them.

CHINA

Pompeo said the US remains concerned over China’s aggressive foreign and military policies over the last two years and, especially during the last six months. “I think many countries are beginning to recognize the threat that is to their people and to their nation as a result of the nature of the Chinese Communist Party and its continued efforts to expand its reach around the world, and I’m confident that will continue to grow and the United States will lead the way in making sure that that group of freedom-loving nations, who found their nations on the idea of individual rights and human dignity, will stay together, and we will ultimately be successful delivering on those for the people of each of our democratic nations,” he said.

IRAN

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Americans sanctions against Iran appear to be working, according to Pompeo. He pointed out in a recent interview that the country had been producing three million barrels a day and this past month they were down to about 70,000 gallons a day. He also noted that the continuing threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran remains. Pompeo said it has violated a number of its nuclear commitments that it signed up for under the JCPOA. He added that the United States put resources in place to deter Iranian aggression on the ground, and that “We’ve put diplomatic power behind uniting the world in a number of ways with respect to Iran’s terrorism. We have convinced the Germans just last month to designate Hizballah. We’re working with partners all around the world to continue to constrain Iran’s capacity to ultimately get a nuclear and to limit their capabilities on missiles and terrorism as well.”

On October 2020, the Russians will be free to sell equipment to Iran. Even the Chinese will be able to sell tanks to Iran, according to Pompeo. He added that “We have a plan that we believe will successfully prevent that from happening.” Even it there is no extension on the prohibition of arms sale to Iran, the Secretary suggested that the US will use its diplomatic capability to prevent it from happening. “It’s too dangerous to the world to allow Iran, after just what would be now five years of the agreement, to be able to again arm themselves, purchase high-end weapon systems from the Russians and the Iranians, making it even more difficult for us to stop them from building out their nuclear program. It was a fundamental flaw of the JCPOA, and we’re determined to do everything we can to prevent that expiration of the arms embargo from taking place, “ Pompeo noted.

CUBA

The US Government announced the addition of seven new sub-entities to the Cuba Restricted List. These seven sub-entities disproportionately benefit the Castro dictatorship. According to the State Department, the regime uses the profits from these businesses to oppress the Cuban people and to fund its interference in Venezuela, at the expense of Cubans or private enterprise in Cuba. Among the seven sub-entities are one military-controlled financial institution, three military-owned hotels, two military-owned scuba diving centers, and one military-owned marine park for tourists. The bulk of Cuba’s tourism industry is owned and operated by the Cuban military.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.