Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

It is incredibly important that the US get to the bottom of what transpired at the start of the corona virus outbreak, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. He said that the Chinese Communist Party needs to “come clean” about how this all began in order to save lives going forward. “We need our scientists, our academics, our epidemiologists all to have access to the data, access to a sample of the virus, access to the places it might have come to.”

When asked by a reporter if Washington should rethink the US-China relationship Pompeo noted that there’s places that the US can work alongside China while there are other areas such as trade where there is unfair treatment.

Pompeo pointed out that the State Department also is concerned about developments in the South China Sea where China is aggressively claiming territory beyond accepted international limits. He also pointed out that Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications company that is controlled by the Chinese Government, is courting countries around the world. The results, he said, is that American citizens’ data may be subjected to scrutiny by the Chinese Government if it crosses over the Chinese G5 network.

VENEZUELA

The US policy of maximum pressure on the former Maduro regime remains and is increasing in intensity in recent weeks, according to acting Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Michael Kozak. The Treasury Department earlier this week announced a new, narrowly limited, seven-month license for U.S. oil companies in Venezuela to wind down operations and engage only in those transactions necessary for the limited maintenance of essential operations, safety of employees, and preservation of assets in Venezuela. This license does not allow for business as usual, according to the State Department. Maduro will receive no money and no benefit from these operations.

CUBA

The United States remains steadfast in its support for the Cuban people and for holding the Cuban regime accountable for its human rights abuses. Earlier this week the State Department reported that the regime has taken advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to continue its exploitation of Cuban medical workers. The State Department said that Washington will continue to “stand up for the rights of Cuban medical personnel and to oppose their exploitation and abuse, particularly in this moment where we must protect doctors more than ever.” The Cuban regime takes up to 90 percent of what doctors earn.

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IRAN

Iran’s military announced Thursday it launched a satellite into orbit after saying they did not have a space program. Secretary Pompeo said it was “really jarring” to see that the “Iranians had lied once again.” He pointed out that they told the world that they didn’t have a military program that was involved in missiles and satellites.

The IRGC, the cutting edge of the Iranian military, announced that they had launched a satellite into low Earth orbit. IT is a move considered dangerous and destabilizing to other countries. Pompeo said that he intends to gather the nations across the world to disassociate themselves from Iran. He added he is confident that there will now be “more countries that understand what President Trump has understood since he first came into office, that the Iran deal was a crazy, bad deal, that we all need to move away from it, that the world needs to disassociate itself from Iran, and that the community of nations needs to come together and convince the Iranian regime to cease their activity, which has led to them being the world’s largest state sponsor of terror for so many years.”

When asked about Iranian military boats harassing US ships in the region, Secretary Pompeo said pointed out that the Trump Administration behaves totally different than the previous one. “You’ll recall when they took our Navy sailors, made them kneel down, and Secretary Kerry apologized to get them back. This President has taken a completely different approach. He has told the Iranian regime enough, we’re not going to permit this, we’re going to defend our soldiers, our sailors, our airmen, and Marines. I think the Iranians understand that as well.”

GUYANA

The still is no outcome in Guyana’s elections which were held more than seven weeks ago. The Guyana Elections Commission has a preliminary work plan for a recount but has not issued a timeline. The Statement said it remains “gravely concerned that so much time has passed without a credible result. Further delays violate the Guyanese people’s rights to a transparent, credible, and timely electoral process.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.