Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

TAIWAN

Since normalizing relations with the People’s Republic of China the United States has been pressured by China to oppose Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, including those related to global health. Although Washington continues to have a presence in Taiwan through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), it has not pushed hard to Taiwan to participate as a full member of the global community. It appears this is beginning to change. The Trump Administration is expanding meetings with Taiwanese officials, American ships are patrolling regularly through the Taiwan Strait and now the State Department is holding a virtual forum with the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) and the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs to examine ways to expand Taiwan’s participation in global affairs.

According to the Office of the Spokesperson at the State Department, the March 31 discussions focused on creating forums to share the successful Taiwan Model on fighting COVID-19 with countries around the world. In addition, participants also discussed ongoing efforts to reinstate Taiwan’s observer status at the World Health Assembly, as well as other avenues for closer coordination between Taiwan and the World Health Organization. Although China objects vociferously to any contact between the US and Taiwan, the Trump Administration continues to make efforts to include Taiwan where possible. The COVID-19 effort is an example of how the world can benefit from the Taiwan Model and contribute to the global community.

IRAN

US Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom, Sam Brownback, has called on Iran to release all of its prisoners of conscience and those in prison for their religious views. He said that the Covid-19 virus is particularly lethal to those in poor health and crowded unsanitary spaces, such as those found in Iran’s notorious prisons. He acknowledged that the regime has released some prisoners due to the virus’ rapid spread but that many remain behind bars due simply to their personal beliefs.

In addition, the State Department Spokesperson, Morgan Ortagus, announced the US is renewing four restrictions on the Iranian regime’s nuclear program for an additional 60 days. Ortagus said: “Iran’s continued expansion of nuclear activities is unacceptable. The regime’s nuclear extortion is among the greatest threats to international peace and security. As President Trump said earlier this year, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. We will continue to use the full range of our diplomatic and economic tools to constrain Iran’s destabilizing proliferation activities. We will continue to closely monitor all developments in Iran’s nuclear program and can adjust these restrictions at any time.”

ASEAN

The United States is recognized as the global leader when it comes to health and humanitarian responses. It is no different with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the country’s own crisis, it acted swiftly to support its ASEAN partners in combating the COVID-19 virus. To date the US government has provided approximately $18.3 million in emergency health and humanitarian assistance to ASEAN member states.

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As of last week the US has provided nearly $274 million in emergency health and humanitarian assistance to help countries in need, on top of the funding it already provides to multilateral organizations such as the World Health Organization and UNICEF. US tax dollars are going to the ASEAN nations to prepare laboratories for large-scale testing for COVID-19, infection prevention and control, to enable risk communication, implement public-health emergency plans for border points of entry, activate case-finding and event-based surveillance for influenza-like illnesses, to train and equip rapid-responders in investigation and contact-tracing, and to update training materials for health workers.

VENEZUELA

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is working on issues in addition to the global pandemic. On March 31, the United States proposed a pathway to resolving Venezuela’s crisis by means of a peaceful, democratic transition. This framework, he said, calls for the establishment of broadly acceptable transitional government to administer free and fair presidential elections and a pathway to lifting Venezuela-related U.S. sanctions.

Pompeo noted that US sanctions will remain in effect, and increase, until the Maduro regime accepts a genuine political transition. The urgency has increased given the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.