Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

US HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

The US government often is criticized by unfriendly nations. This week there is little to criticize as the State Department and USAID stepped up, amid America’s own national health crisis, to deliver nearly $100 million in emergency health assistance from USAID’s Global Health Emergency Reserve Fund and $110 million in humanitarian assistance from USAID’s International Disaster Assistance account. With Secretary Pompeo’s announcement Thursday, it increases the US total to $274 million in funding.

This money is going to 64 of the most at-risk countries facing the threat of this global pandemic. Through the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) also will receive $64 million in humanitarian assistance to help address the threats posed by COVID-19 in existing humanitarian crisis situations for some of the world’s most vulnerable people. The United States is leading the world effort to combat the Covid-19 virus.

AFGHANISTAN

When asked if the deal with the Taliban is holding, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said that “…”like every effort at peace after now a couple decades of fighting, with Americans – 40 years all in all in Afghanistan – we knew it would be a rocky path. We’ve made some progress. It looks like there’s going to be the first prisoner release. That was a key part of getting the parties back to the negotiating table.”

Pompeo added that it is the US mission set to get the Afghans to resolve the conflict. “We need to reduce the risk, to protect American interests, make sure there’s not a attack on America from Afghanistan – that’s the mission the President has set out for us – and at the same time, to reduce the risk to our men and women there,” he pointed out.

IRAN

According to Pompeo, it is absolutely clear that the approach that the United States took to the Islamic Republic of Iran in “the previous administration set up America for risk, set up the world for a pathway to a nuclear weapon there.” He noted the way the regimes treats the Iranian people during the Covid-19 crisis. According to Pompeo, the leadership is continuing to spend money on weapons. He noted that Katusha rockets were fired inside of Iraq by militias trained, assisted, support provided, by the “rogue” Iranian regime.

VENEZUELA

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In countries like Venezuela the United States is doing its best to ensure that humanitarian assistance for the Covid-19 pandemic can make its way in. Pompeo pointed out that in some of these countries, when humanitarian assistance is offered they often reject it. “I think it’s indicative of these leaders who care so little about their people they execute plans that are corrupt. They take care of the leadership but don’t take care of their own people,” said Pompeo.

CHINA

There are many products that the United States sole sources from China. In some case the medicines are critical pharmaceuticals. In others, China forms a part of the supply chain that the US requires to complete technologically-driven products. In a recent interview the Secretary of State said that “President Trump, from the beginning of our administration, made clear that the trade relationship with China was fundamentally unfair, it wasn’t reciprocal. I think you can see that some of the supply chain challenges that we’ve had are a result of the fact that companies were operating their supply chains out of China but not here in the United States.” Pompeo said that after the Covid-19 crisis is over the United States is going to have to make some very important decisions about exactly how the US-China trade relationship is to be structured in the future.

He added that Washington wants the Chinese people to be successful. “But,” he said, “it’s fundamentally the case that we have to make sure that we do right by the American people, that we get this relationship not only with China but with every country right, so that we can ensure that we do right to protect and keep safe the American people the way President Trump committed to do.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.