Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

VENEZUELA

With the Covid-19 pandemic capturing much of the world’s attention US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo did not forget the US citizens wrongly held in a Venezuelan prison. This week he pointed out that the Maduro regime finally is acknowledging that COVID-19 cases are appearing in Venezuela. The Secretary then called for the Americans to be released saying “We are extremely concerned about the risk for the five U.S. citizens and one U.S. resident from Citgo who are currently languishing in the notorious Helicoide prison in Caracas. These wrongfully detained men all have weakened immune systems due to cumulative health problems and face a grave health risk if they become infected. Seventeen hearings have been cancelled. They have already spent more than two years in jail without an ounce of evidence being brought against them; it is time to release them on humanitarian grounds.” The brutal Maduro regime continues to hold a number of political prisoners and many other in the country remain unaccounted for since he took over power in April 2013.

IRAN

The State Department this week added five Iranian nuclear scientists to its growing sanctions list for their involvement in Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear weapons program, known as the Amad program. Secretary of state Pompeo said that the group of five “continue to be employed by the regime to this day.” “After work on the Amad plan was stopped, Iran continued to preserve its Amad-era records and its cadre of nuclear weapons scientists, including these individuals, he added.

The Amad Plan started in 1989 with the goal of developing nuclear weapons for the country. Iran in 2015 denied its existence saying it has no program aimed at the development of a nuclear explosive device. In 2018 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu referred to the Amad Plan saying there were over 100,000 documents smuggled out of Iran by the Mossad that confirmed its existence. The goal, according to the documents, was to produce and test five nuclear warheads, each with a ten kiloton TNT yield for integration on a missile. The five new names continue to bring attention to the need for a full accounting by Iran of its nuclear weapons program.

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VIETNAM

Morgan Ortagus, the State Department Spokesperson, said the US is dismayed by the conviction of blogger and Radio Free Asia (RFA) contributor Truong Duy Nhat, and his sentencing to 10 years imprisonment. “The conviction is under vague charges related to fraud allegations dating back nearly 20 years. We remain troubled by Nhat’s sudden disappearance from Bangkok, Thailand on January 25, 2019, the day after he initiated a request to register as a refugee with the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and his reappearance in a Vietnamese prison three months later.,” Ortagus added.The State Department called on Vietnam to “immediately release Nhat and all prisoners of conscience and to allow all individuals in Vietnam to express their views freely and assemble peacefully without threat of retribution.” Last year Vietnam ranked 176^th out of 180 countries in the Press Freedom Index—just below Sudan and slightly above China’s ranking. Vietnam is “not free,” according to Freedom House, a US government-funded rights group. At least 30 bloggers and journalists are being held in Vietnamese jails. The communist government employs intimidation tactics to control the free flow of information. Even privately owned news outlets are tightly controlled by the regime. It is believed that the overall number of prisoners in Vietnam has increased by one-third since last year. Many are activists charged under Article 117 of a new 2018 penal code that prohibits “making, storing, disseminating or propagandizing materials and produce that aim to oppose the State…” Journalists who don’t comply are warned, fined, and jailed under horrible conditions.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.