Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

PALESTINE

“The Palestinian people have an enormous opportunity for a better life for the Palestinian people.” In a press conference in London, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo pointed out that the Palestinian leadership called for a “day of rage,” while the US called for “diplomacy to sit down at the table and have a negotiated resolution to a longstanding conflict.” The plan, if implemented, provides for real security and it reflects the reality on the ground for the Israelis. It also presents the Palestinians with an enormous opportunity worth $50 billion to the regional economy and, potentially, as many as one million jobs.

The Secretary said that he is confident the new peace plan is good for everyone – “every Israeli and every Palestinian.” He pointed out that they now have an offer on the table and are free to come up with a counter offer, if that’s what they think is appropriate. Pompeo said: “We’d look forward to that. We’re prepared to listen,….” and he knows “the Israelis will be prepared to sit down and negotiate on the basis of the vision that the President laid out.”

This is the most detailed plan presented by an American administration and it is the first time the Israelis have ever conceded to a map that outlines what the region will look like with a Palestinian state. Pompeo called it a “real vision” and said that he hopes all the parties will consider it thoughtfully and move forward.

CHINA

As the 2020 novel coronavirus rampages across China and spreads across the globe, Chinese leaders are accepting blame for failing to be open and transparent at the start of the crisis. The mayor of Wuhan has offered to resign. In a city of 14 million, 5 million were able to leave prior to the travel ban. This essentially allowed the virus to spread quickly and to distant areas. The rate of infection is doubling ever 6.2 days with cases found now throughout the world. It is spreading faster than SARS but at this time the mortality rate remains lower.

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Economically, it is impacting China by further slowing the domestic economy which already is feeling the effects of American trade sanctions. The virus is not expected to peak until the June-July period leaving some economists questioning whether, and how long, it will take China to recover. Despite the short-term disruptions from the virus, although impactful, Pompeo called China “The greatest threat of our times.” It is moving forward with Huawei’s expansion of the 5G network and pushing it out to countries in the west, including Great Britain.

GREAT BRITAIN

In addition to Brexit, Secretary of State Pompeo was in London to talk about that country’s acceptance of Hwawei and 5G. He pointed out that the Administration has spoken to the United Kingdom at great length at the political level and a lot at the national security level over the past months. He added that the US view of Huawei has been that putting it in the British system “creates real risk.” G5 is an extension of the Chinese Communist Party with a legal requirement to hand over information to the Chinese Communist Party, according to Pompeo. Washington is concerned about the impact on American security and what interactions it will permit with Great Britain if installed. The Trump Administration is pushing for Western systems with Western rules and arguing that American information only should pass through trusted networks.

POLAND

In an effort to reinforce US NATO ally Poland’s ability to defend its territory the United States Pompeo says it welcomes the Polish government’s decision to purchase 32 F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft. The $4.6 billion sale made under the Foreign Military Sales program is overseen by the U.S. Department of State. Pompeo added that he commends “President Duda, Prime Minister Morawiecki, and the Polish government’s commitment to continue modernizing Poland’s military through the acquisition of the world’s most advanced fighter aircraft, which will improve Poland’s ability to provide collective and self-defense.”

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.