Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook spoke with reporters this week when announcing additional sanctions on Iran in support of the Administration’s Maximum Pressure campaign. He noted that Secretary Pompeo recently promised to hold Iran accountable for its human rights violations and for its treatment of the Iranian people. In doing so, he said that the US Government is listing IRGC Brigadier General Hassan Shahvarpour under Section 7031(c) visa sanctions. General Shahvarpour committed gross violations of human rights against protesters in Mahshahr and oversaw the massacre of 148 helpless Iranians in the Mahshahr region last November.

According to Hook, one of the over 88,000 tips sent through the State Department’s hotline since last November made the action possible. He added: “We use this information to expose the criminality of the regime and to hold violators accountable. Since the violent crackdown on protests last November, the United States has sanctioned two judges and eight other regime officials for their roles in brutalizing the Iranian people. We are continuing to review all information we receive from the Iranian people, and we will continue to hold more regime officials responsible for human rights violations.”

Iran is in an economic crisis that also has contributed to the unrest in the country. The Iranian people are opposing state corruption. The pressure put on by the sanctions, according to Hook, had led to more than 25% unemployment rate among young Iranians and an inflation rate of 40%. It is this group that is calling strongly for reform, among others. “We have succeeded in raising the costs for Iran,” he noted, “and the regime is badly managing an economic crisis of its own making.”

Iranian oil exports have decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, according to the State Department, thus reducing its oil revenue by more than 80%, or about $50 billion annually. The result is that Iran is less able to fund terrorist activity throughout the region.

RUSSIA

When asked to comment about the changes in the Russian government, Secretary of State Pompeo that it does appear that President Putin is attempting to make himself president for life and retain control after the 2024 elections. It was announced recently that top leaders, such as Dmitri Medvedev among others, have resigned from the Russian government. This all but ensures that Putin will gain even more control over the Russian government.

CHINA

China and the United State inked phase one of a trade agreement the President is calling “historic.” Commenting on the agreement Pompeo said that he thinks it is “…consistent with our National Security Strategy where we identified the fact that this is a long-term challenge and there’s real opportunity there as well, but we have to make sure and get this right….”

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He acknowledged that there are many constraints remaining in the US-China relationship, including issues surrounding China’s activity in the South China Sea, human rights conditions inside the country, and the use of Chinese funds to buy influence internationally.

Another stumbling block to better relations is the resolution of intellectual property rights disputes between the two countries. Pompeo noted that when he was in northern California, he met with American business people who discussed that challenges they face when dealing with China, especially in the area of China’s unfair direct investment policy toward US companies. When asked about American firms selling surveillance equipment to China to spy on its own people, the Secretary pointed out that the US has a strict set of laws covering the topic. He added that China conducts illegal business activity despite the rules. He added that China still buys Iranian oil despite US attempts to halt the sales that are in violation of the US sanctions regime. The Secretary promised that Washington is going to do everything it can to enforce sanctions against every violator of the US trade restrictions.

NORTH KOREA

The US and North Korea are continuing to talk behind-the-scenes according to Pompeo. He noted that the United States is interested in convincing President Kim that it is in his best interest to deliver on the promised he made 18 months ago. The talks to date have been a back and forth process in which the North Korean has made, and then failed to fulfill, promises to the United States and the world. Pompeo said that he is positive that the North potentially will make the correct decision in the future as the weapons systems they have pose a real threat to the North Korean people and the world.

Pompeo added that “…if we can get the right arrangement, if we can get the sequence right, and we can have serious conversations about it, I still hold out hope that we can convince Chairman Kim to move away from the nuclear weapons as their great wall of protection and convince them that there is a brighter, even more secure posture that they can have without those nuclear weapons.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.