Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

The President boldly announced from the White House that as long as he is president Iran “will not get nuclear weapons.” In response to Iran’s aggressive actions against the United States Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on Friday announced a new series of sanctions designed to curb the regime’s destructive behavior. He said there are three pieces to America’s anti-terrorism policy toward Iran.

First, the US will deny Iran the wealth and resources it needs to conduct global terrorism and warfare. The President, Pompeo added, is issuing an executive order authorizing the imposition of “additional sanctions against any individual owning, operating, trading with, or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy, including construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining,” according to the Secretary.

Second, Pompeo announced 17 specific sanctions against Iran’s largest iron and steel manufacturers, which is expected to cut off billions of dollars of support to the regime and to encourage it to behave more like a normal nation. The final policy change announced was that the United States is taking action against eight senior Iranian officials who advanced the regime’s destabilizing activity and who were involved in this past week’s ballistic missile strike.

By combining diplomatic and economic efforts the Administration hopes to stop Iran’s terrorist activities and to get the regime in Tehran to agree to “never have nuclear weapons.” The Secretary ended his announcement by pointing out that Washington is concerned about American detained in Iran and it will do what it can to get each of them returned home to their families. After the missile attack Iranian sources said that Iran plans no further actions against the United States at this time. It appears that the regime leadership wants to avoid all-out war with the United States. Intelligence analysts in Washington believe that the recent attacks in Iraq were designed to do little damage. This view is reinforced by the fact that Iran warned Iraqi leaders about the attack three hours prior to it. It can be assumed that Iran knew the government would inform Washington.

VENEZUELA

In a statement released Friday, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo pointed out that Venezuela’s political crisis has led to the flight of more than 4.8 million people. He called for a “… swift negotiated transition to democracy…” and said it “is the most effective and sustainable route to peace and prosperity in Venezuela. Negotiations could open the path out of the crisis through a transitional government that will organize free and fair elections.”

Later this year Venezuelans will go to the polls to elect a new President and National Assembly members. Pompeo pointed that that the country needs to rebuild its infrastructure and institutions that were “eviscerated by a brutal regime.”

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CHINA

In a statement released by the State Department Spokesperson, Morgan Ortagus, she said that the US is “alarmed that Pastor Wang Yi, leader of the Early Rain Covenant Church in Chengdu, was tried in secret and sentenced to nine years in prison in connection to his peaceful advocacy for religious freedom.”

The United States is calling for his immediate and unconditional release. Pastor Wang Yi, the announcement noted, was originally arrested with “dozens of other congregants on December 9, 2018, during a massive crackdown on Chengdu’s largest unregistered church. He was found guilty during a closed-door trial December 26 on trumped-up charges of “inciting subversion of state power” and “illegal business activities,” with “no defense lawyer present.”

Ortagus said this is yet another example of “Beijing’s intensification of repression of Chinese Christians and members of other religious groups.” The Trump Administration called on Beijing to uphold its international commitments and promises made in its own constitution to promote religious freedom for all individuals, including members of ethnic and religious minorities and those who worship outside of official state-sanctioned institutions. In recent months President Xi has allowed some religious activity in the older, more traditional religions in China. Analysts in Washington surmise this is to tamp down social unrest in a country facing immense domestic challenges going into 2020.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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