Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAQ

According to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, the US is closely monitoring the situation at the American Embassy in Iraq. He said that Washington never contemplated abandoning the site and added that numerous times a day: “I made clear when I spoke with the Iraqi leadership that the Iraqis have the responsibility to keep our facilities safe.” The Iraqi government recently met their obligation and has deployed counterterrorism forces to property the property.

IRAN

When asked if the American people should contemplate being on a war footing in 2020 over Iran’s behavior, the Secretary responded that the activity Iran supported in Iraq was state-sponsored terrorism. Just a day after he made that comment a US rocket attack at Baghdad International Airport killed several Iranian military leaders including General Qassim Soleimani, one of the country’s most revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard leaders. Pompeo pointed out that the Trump Administration takes a fundamentally different approach to responding to terrorism. He noted that “We have starved them of resources, we have denied them access, we have put pressure on the Iranian leadership, and I think you see that.” The Secretary previously on several occasions labeled Soleimani as equally dangerous as the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was in the past.

NORTH KOREA

In a state media announcement, North Korea said the world will “witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK” and that in the near future, it is ending its moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing.

In response to the announcement Secretary Pompeo said he was “more concerned about it when this administration took office. We were in a place where it was very likely that we would have ended up in a war with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea. President Trump has taken an approach where we’ve tried to develop a diplomatic pathway.”

When asked if he believes North Korea has reneged on its commitment to President Trump, Pompeo responded that if it is true, it is “deeply disappointing.” He noted: “I was there when Chairman Kim made the commitment that said he would not engage in intercontinental missiles or test-firing of their nuclear weapons, testing their nuclear weapons systems. He made those commitments to President Trump in exchange for President Trump agreeing not to conduct large-scale military exercises. We’ve lived up to our commitments. We continue to hold out hope that he’ll live up to his as well.”

RUSSIA

Inside the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2020 is Section 7503(d), also known as the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) of 2019. It calls for those companies involved to immediate cease construction of Russia’s underwater Nord Stream 2 pipeline or face sanctions. The law gives the Secretary of State up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. Pompeo reportedly will comply to the letter of the law and report promptly to Congress any violations.

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According to a recent statement released by the State Department, the pipeline is a “tool Russia is using to support its continued aggression against Ukraine,” as Russia seeks to prevent it from integrating more closely with Europe and the United States. The underwater pipeline will enable Russia to bypass Ukraine for gas transit to Europe, which the State Department says “would deprive Ukraine of substantial transit revenues and increase its vulnerability to Russian aggression.” It also would create an economic dependency on Russia which European nations would have a difficult time bypassing both economically and politically in the future.

Washington’s intention is to stop construction of Nord Stream 2. According to the State Department the US position has been consistent across multiple administrations. The statement said it is “part of a longstanding practice to promote energy security through diversification of energy supplies by country of origin, path of delivery, and fuel types, including renewables. Anyone engaged in the energy trading business ought to do it under fair terms, which are transparent, and operate according to market principles.”

SYRIA

Secretary Pompeo called the Russian Federation’s and China’s veto last week of a Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian aid to reach millions of Syrians “shameful.” The resolution put forward by Germany, Belgium and Kuwait, and supported by the U.S. would have enabled life-saving assistance to reach at least four million Syrians throughout the country, according to Pompeo.

“Unfortunately,” he said, “the Russian Federation for the 14th time, and China, for the 8th time, failed in this commitment. Both countries preferred instead to provide cover and support for its junior partner in Damascus; thus placing the lives of millions of innocent civilians in the balance at the height of winter, while further threatening civilians by supporting the continued Assad regime and Russian military offensive on Idlib.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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