Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAQ

According to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, the US is closely monitoring the situation at the American Embassy in Iraq. He said that Washington never contemplated abandoning the site and added that numerous times a day: “I made clear when I spoke with the Iraqi leadership that the Iraqis have the responsibility to keep our facilities safe.” The Iraqi government recently met their obligation and has deployed counterterrorism forces to property the property.

IRAN

When asked if the American people should contemplate being on a war footing in 2020 over Iran’s behavior, the Secretary responded that the activity Iran supported in Iraq was state-sponsored terrorism. Just a day after he made that comment a US rocket attack at Baghdad International Airport killed several Iranian military leaders including General Qassim Soleimani, one of the country’s most revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard leaders. Pompeo pointed out that the Trump Administration takes a fundamentally different approach to responding to terrorism. He noted that “We have starved them of resources, we have denied them access, we have put pressure on the Iranian leadership, and I think you see that.” The Secretary previously on several occasions labeled Soleimani as equally dangerous as the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was in the past.

NORTH KOREA

In a state media announcement, North Korea said the world will “witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK” and that in the near future, it is ending its moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing.

In response to the announcement Secretary Pompeo said he was “more concerned about it when this administration took office. We were in a place where it was very likely that we would have ended up in a war with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea. President Trump has taken an approach where we’ve tried to develop a diplomatic pathway.”

When asked if he believes North Korea has reneged on its commitment to President Trump, Pompeo responded that if it is true, it is “deeply disappointing.” He noted: “I was there when Chairman Kim made the commitment that said he would not engage in intercontinental missiles or test-firing of their nuclear weapons, testing their nuclear weapons systems. He made those commitments to President Trump in exchange for President Trump agreeing not to conduct large-scale military exercises. We’ve lived up to our commitments. We continue to hold out hope that he’ll live up to his as well.”

RUSSIA

Inside the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2020 is Section 7503(d), also known as the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) of 2019. It calls for those companies involved to immediate cease construction of Russia’s underwater Nord Stream 2 pipeline or face sanctions. The law gives the Secretary of State up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. Pompeo reportedly will comply to the letter of the law and report promptly to Congress any violations.

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According to a recent statement released by the State Department, the pipeline is a “tool Russia is using to support its continued aggression against Ukraine,” as Russia seeks to prevent it from integrating more closely with Europe and the United States. The underwater pipeline will enable Russia to bypass Ukraine for gas transit to Europe, which the State Department says “would deprive Ukraine of substantial transit revenues and increase its vulnerability to Russian aggression.” It also would create an economic dependency on Russia which European nations would have a difficult time bypassing both economically and politically in the future.

Washington’s intention is to stop construction of Nord Stream 2. According to the State Department the US position has been consistent across multiple administrations. The statement said it is “part of a longstanding practice to promote energy security through diversification of energy supplies by country of origin, path of delivery, and fuel types, including renewables. Anyone engaged in the energy trading business ought to do it under fair terms, which are transparent, and operate according to market principles.”

SYRIA

Secretary Pompeo called the Russian Federation’s and China’s veto last week of a Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian aid to reach millions of Syrians “shameful.” The resolution put forward by Germany, Belgium and Kuwait, and supported by the U.S. would have enabled life-saving assistance to reach at least four million Syrians throughout the country, according to Pompeo.

“Unfortunately,” he said, “the Russian Federation for the 14th time, and China, for the 8th time, failed in this commitment. Both countries preferred instead to provide cover and support for its junior partner in Damascus; thus placing the lives of millions of innocent civilians in the balance at the height of winter, while further threatening civilians by supporting the continued Assad regime and Russian military offensive on Idlib.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.