Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

LEBANON

It appears Lebanon is forming a new government that may be led by a prime minister who is a member of Hezbollah, or at least one who has the strong backing of Hezbollah, according to a senior, unnamed State Department official. In the past the United States had had to work with Lebanonese leaders affiliated with Hezbollah. He added: “Our principles on Lebanon, notwithstanding who may or may not be the next prime minister – because although we have a prime minister-designate, it’s unclear whether they will be able to find a government, be able to form a government – is that this government must be capable of and committed to pursuing reform and fighting corruption.”

Washington is highly skeptical that a government led by Hizballah would be capable of or committed to fighting corruption as it is an organization that depends greatly on corruption for its survival and funding its criminal enterprise and terrorist activities, the official noted. He also added that no government, including Great Britain, China, Russia, France, Italy or the United States is going to bail out Lebanon financially if it is not committed wholeheartedly to financial reform and stopping corruption.

LIBYA

As 2019 ends and a new year begins Libya remains an enormous and escalating concern for Washington. Field Marshal Shalifa Belqasim Haftar is engaged in a second civil in Libya that threatens to further destabilize the country. According to a senior State Department official, there is increased Egyptian support for Hiftar, but he is “most concerned about increased Russian support for Hiftar, increasing numbers of Russian mercenaries on the ground, increasing number – amount of violence, shelling of civilian areas in Tripoli, and of course, the prospect of increased Turkish involvement….” Washington is pushing for a negotiated diplomatic solution and continues to back the Berlin Process which is attempting to develop a consensus on governance and security arrangements.

RUSSIA

The United States is concerned that Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline Russia is attempting to lay, will be used in support of Moscow’s campaign of aggression against the Ukraine. The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed by President Trump, calls for immediate cessation of construction-related activity in a “good faith wind-down” by parties that have sold, leased, or provided vessels engaged in laying pipe at depths of over 100 feet for the construction of Nord Stream 2 or face American sanctions.

According to the State Department, the pipeline would allow Russia to bypass the Ukraine for gas transit to Europe and deprive that country of “substantial transit revenues on imports of Russian natural gas.” It also portends a heavy reliance on Russia by western Europe which created both economics and political vulnerabilities in the region. The United States and most of western Europe oppose Nord Stream 2.

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According to the new NDAA legislation, the Secretary of State has up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. This is consistent with past US Administrations that also opposed the construction. Diversification of Europe’s energy supplies will continue to promote security for the region by reducing the influence of geopolitics, according to the State Department. Purchasing US LNG already has saved European consumers $8 billion by enabling countries to negotiate lower prices.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in a press interview this week, called on the Palestinian Authority and Israel to meet to try to work out a political solution to the complex territorial issues plaguing the area. The result, he added, must be one that provides a beneficial outcome for both sides.

Pompeo pointed out that “the parties have to have leaders that are prepared to do things that are difficult. But more importantly, they need to be prepared to engage in a set of conversations….” He said that arguing over who is right or wrong as a matter of international law is not going to get peace. “It’s a complex political problem only resolvable between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We’re – we the United States is committed to help facilitating that. We’ll do what we can.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.