SECRETARY POMPEO IS TRAVELLING TO ASIA FOR TALKS WITH LEADERS October 6-8

Secretary of State Pompeo will travel to Tokyo, Japan to meet with Prime Minister Abe; Pyongyang, DPRK to meet with President Moon; Seoul, Republic of Korea with President Moon and Foreign Minister Kang; and, finally in Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss bilateral, regional, and global issues. The purpose of the trip is continue to focus on the final, fully verifiable, denuclearization of the DPRK, and longstanding commitment to American alliances and partnerships in the region.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR COUNTERTERRORISM

This week President Trump announced a new National Strategy for Counterterrorism that the State Department says: “…brings to bear all facets of American power to protect our people and interests. The President’s strategy emphasizes the importance of diplomacy and the role of international partnerships in combating the terrorist threats we face.”

The strategy, Secretary Pompeo says, recognizes the need for all nations to equitably share the burden of confronting terrorism, to expand the counterterrorism capabilities of Washington’s partners, and to work collaboratively to defeat the terrorists of today and tomorrow.

Terrorist groups are evolving into more complex, fluid, and fast-moving groups that adapt quickly to efforts to thwart their expansion and violence. Networks such as al-Qa`ida, ISIS, and Iranian-supported terrorists continue to target the United States, America’s allies, and partners.

SECRETARY POMPEO SAYS LANDMARK DEVELOPMENT FINANCE LEGISLATION IMPROVES U.S. COMPETITIVENESS OVERSEAS

The recent Congressional Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act of 2018 passed with strong bipartisan support. Known as The BUILD Act, it implements President Trump’s vision for our development finance institutions. It also strengthens the government’s development finance capacity, offering a better alternative to state-directed investments and advancing our foreign policy goals. Secretary Pompeo pointed out: “We are enabling them to mobilize private sector investment to accelerate development and move societies forward. The Act provides opportunities for American companies to compete overseas and create jobs here at home, a critical component of the President’s national economic strategy.”

SECRETARY OF STATE’S PRESS CONFERENCE ON IRAQ, THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE AND PUTTING AMERICA’S DIPLOMATIC CORPS BACK IN THE FIELD
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On October 3, prior to his Asian trip Secretary Pompeo held a press conference in which he discussed three issues: Iraq, the International Court of Justice and putting America’s diplomatic corps back in the field.

Regarding the situation in Iraq, the Secretary said Iran is the origin of the current threat to Americans in that country. “It is to blame for the attacks against our mission in Basra and our embassy in Baghdad. Our intelligence in this regard is solid. We can see the hand of the ayatollah and his henchmen supporting these attacks on the United States.,” he said.

Last week the Secretary ordered the temporary relocation of U.S. Government personnel from the American consulate general in Basra. He also warned the leadership in Tehran that the United States will hold Iran “directly responsible for any harm to Americans or our diplomatic facilities, whether perpetrated by Iranian forces or by associated proxies or elements of those militias.”

These acts appear to be attempts by Iran to counter American successes in the region and are expected to increase after full sanctions are in place beginning on the 4^th of November.

The Secretary also announced that Washington is terminating the 1955 Treaty of Amity with Iran. Last July, he said, “Iran brought a meritless case in the International Court of Justice alleging violations of the Treaty of Amity. Iran seeks to challenge the United States decision to cease participation in the Iran nuclear deal and to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted as a part of that deal. Iran is attempting to interfere with the sovereign rights of the United States to take lawful actions necessary to protect our national security. And Iran is abusing the ICJ for political and propaganda purposes and their case, as you can see from the decision, lacked merit.”

The Secretary also discussed “putting the diplomatic team from the United States Department of State back on the field.” Currently, there are 65 nominees waiting for confirmation in the United States Senate. This number equates to over 25% of all senior-level confirmable positions.

Secretary Pompeo stated that he wants “…every single American to know that what Senator Menendez and members of the Senate are doing to hold back American diplomacy rests squarely on their shoulders.” While there is bipartisan agreement that a fully staffed State Department is critical to American national security, Senator Menendez and others, he pointed out, have held up highly-qualified appointees some for as long as 207 days.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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