Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN-IRAQ

Reports are out again that Iran is storing large caches in Iraq and that it is believed they may be nuclear capable. A State Department official traveling in Morocco said this is not news and that he “gave a backgrounder… two months ago or more… where I said very clearly… Iran is storing ballistic missiles in Iraq. I’ve said it a number of times in background briefings in the bullpen. So this is not news; this should not be any news to you.” Many in the media are treating this as a new development in the region.

Iran has been developing and deploying missiles throughout the region before and after the United States pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal. Many analysts believe Iran’s intent is to allow it to conduct a “shadow war” with a level of deniability. Tehran could try to claim it is not responsible for the actions of other states or rogue organizations if the weapons are used offensively.

According to the official Secretary of State Michael Pompeo believes it is incredibly problematic that right now, as Iraq is in the process of trying to sort out a new government and a way ahead, that “Qasem Soleimani is there in all these meetings, meddling, essentially; that Iran is – is trying to tilt the balance of – or the impact, the trajectory of these key sort of Iraqi matters.”

He added that Washington is holding accountable Iraqi – Iranian-backed militias that are killing protesters. “We’re supporting the protesters’ legitimate grievances, and we are talking to Iraqi officials about what we think – well, we are supporting the Iraqi Government, whatever government that will come out. We have a policy of not meddling in government formation.”

CHINA

In a press conference in Portugal Secretary Pompeo was asked about Hwawei regarding the 5G network security challenge to other nations. He said: “We’ve approached this very consistently everywhere. It begins with American national security. So we have the privacy interests of American citizens that we want to make sure and protect. And so as we think about where Americans’ information will be, we want to make sure that that information only gets into networks that we trust and that we’re confident that won’t end up in the hands of a malign actor or the Chinese Communist Party.” The 5G rollout is expected to occur in 2020. It has the potential to be used by China to gain a strategic advantage over foreign governments and citizens by delivering vast amounts of data to Chinese intelligence organizations.

Pompeo said the United States recognizes the sovereignty of every nation and their right to make decisions for themselves. But, he added, “we have tried for these past couple years to make clear to our friends all around the world of the intended risks, and that they’ll do so via a science and technology-based set of risks.” The security question concerns the privacy of information on non-Chinese citizens. Pompeo noted: “The leadership in Europe has a responsibility to ensure that the networks on which European private citizens’ information flows are secure and safe and trusted and this information won’t flow to places that that information ought not to be. And so our mission, the United States mission, has been to share what we know, what we understand, and then how America is thinking about decisions we will have to make in light of where American information travels as well.”

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EUROPEAN UNION

According to Morgan Ortagus, State Department Spokesperson, on December 3, the European Union (EU) Council identified serious risks posed to 5G telecommunications networks if they are built using untrusted vendors. In the future these networks could form the backbone of the critical infrastructure of national economies and be subject to manipulation by China. Washington welcomed the acknowledgement and Ortagus said the US urged its European partners and allies to “ensure only trusted vendors participate in any part of their future 5G networks.”

Later in December the European Union is expected to release its 5G risk mitigation toolbox. Ortagus said the US hopes its recommendations will “include strong measures to address the risks identified in today’s statement and in the EU’s Risk Assessment published in October 2019.”

Washington’s position is that Chinese telecommunications firms such as Huawei and ZTE must comply with the directives of the government of the People’s Republic of China, without allowing it any meaningful checks and balances that would prevent misuse of data by officials.

Allowing these vendors anywhere in a country’s 5G networks would present critical risks to the privacy, human rights, and security of its citizens.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.