Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

ISRAEL

Are the settlements in Israel illegal? Previously, the President previously said the country not in compliance with recognized international law. But now, according to Secretary of State Pompeo, the US is revisiting the issue and has decided the “ground truth” is that Israel’s settlement’s are, in fact, not illegal per se.

The Israeli courts are quite capable of making determinations about particular settlements, he pointed out. Resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians “is going to be a political resolution, Pompeo added. “We want to create the maximum space for that political resolution. And so our legal conclusion we think facilitates the – an increased likelihood that we can ultimately see a political resolution between Israel and the Palestinian people.”

IRAN

The Trump Administration continues to deny Iran the means to conduct terrorist activities, according to Pompeo. In response to recent events where over 100 protesters were shot by the Iranian government, the State Department said its efforts to contain Iran’s illegal behavior are continuing unabated. Pompeo said Washington intends to deny the kleptocrats in charge of the Iranian regime, “the resources to foment terror and to, frankly, punish their own citizens as well, and to put their citizens at risk by underwriting Hizballah and Shia militias in Iraq. So that’s been our effort, our international effort.”

The Islamic Republic of Iran leadership’s recent decision about removing some of the gas subsidies fomented significant political protests against the regime leadership. The government in Tehran also shut off the internet “so that they could engage in activities essentially in the dark, without communications. And second, they instigated a political crackdown,” noted Pompeo. He said that while Washington could not yet verify the numbers several international human rights groups have reported that at least 100 were killed by the regime.

Unlike the Obama Administration, President Trump’s has not refrained from sending out messages of support to the protesters. Pompeo pointed out that the President is “not fueling those regime thugs by providing them resources, while the previous administration put $150 million in an airplane and sent it across to the Iranians. We have done everything we can to deny the regime the resources they need to foment this bad behavior and their imperialist tendencies all around the region.”

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HONG KONG

When the Chinese government made a commitment to the people of Hong Kong in 1997 that upon becoming part of China, they would still adhere to a set of rules labelled “one country, two systems.” Beijing agreed at the time to guarantee the set of basic law freedoms for the people of Hong Kong. Pompeo said that Washington’s request to the Chinese Communist Party leadership, General Secretary Xi, is that he “honor the commitment that China made to those people.”

The protesters in Hong Kong, according to Pompeo, “simply want Chinese Government in Beijing to honor the promises that were made to them, and President Trump has said very clearly we want there to be no violence on either side. We want Beijing to handle the situation politically, to resolve this conflict in a way that reflects the basic understanding of one country and two systems, and honor the autonomy that the Hong Kong people are permitted under what China – the Chinese Government of Beijing promised to them.”

The world is watching political developments in Hong Kong as they continue festering with ongoing protests and crackdowns by Beijing. Pompeo added that “We’re all trying to find a political resolution to these protests and the demands of the people there in Hong Kong, and we hope that that happens. In the event that – I think President Trump said – in the event that there was a hand that was too heavy or there was violence that wasn’t reflective of an appropriate response, I think President Trump has said, boy, makes it much harder for him or for anyone to deal with Beijing in trade or other issues….” The Secretary added he is hopeful that this won’t be the case and that there is a positive outcome.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.