Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

ISRAEL

Are the settlements in Israel illegal? Previously, the President previously said the country not in compliance with recognized international law. But now, according to Secretary of State Pompeo, the US is revisiting the issue and has decided the “ground truth” is that Israel’s settlement’s are, in fact, not illegal per se.

The Israeli courts are quite capable of making determinations about particular settlements, he pointed out. Resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians “is going to be a political resolution, Pompeo added. “We want to create the maximum space for that political resolution. And so our legal conclusion we think facilitates the – an increased likelihood that we can ultimately see a political resolution between Israel and the Palestinian people.”

IRAN

The Trump Administration continues to deny Iran the means to conduct terrorist activities, according to Pompeo. In response to recent events where over 100 protesters were shot by the Iranian government, the State Department said its efforts to contain Iran’s illegal behavior are continuing unabated. Pompeo said Washington intends to deny the kleptocrats in charge of the Iranian regime, “the resources to foment terror and to, frankly, punish their own citizens as well, and to put their citizens at risk by underwriting Hizballah and Shia militias in Iraq. So that’s been our effort, our international effort.”

The Islamic Republic of Iran leadership’s recent decision about removing some of the gas subsidies fomented significant political protests against the regime leadership. The government in Tehran also shut off the internet “so that they could engage in activities essentially in the dark, without communications. And second, they instigated a political crackdown,” noted Pompeo. He said that while Washington could not yet verify the numbers several international human rights groups have reported that at least 100 were killed by the regime.

Unlike the Obama Administration, President Trump’s has not refrained from sending out messages of support to the protesters. Pompeo pointed out that the President is “not fueling those regime thugs by providing them resources, while the previous administration put $150 million in an airplane and sent it across to the Iranians. We have done everything we can to deny the regime the resources they need to foment this bad behavior and their imperialist tendencies all around the region.”

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HONG KONG

When the Chinese government made a commitment to the people of Hong Kong in 1997 that upon becoming part of China, they would still adhere to a set of rules labelled “one country, two systems.” Beijing agreed at the time to guarantee the set of basic law freedoms for the people of Hong Kong. Pompeo said that Washington’s request to the Chinese Communist Party leadership, General Secretary Xi, is that he “honor the commitment that China made to those people.”

The protesters in Hong Kong, according to Pompeo, “simply want Chinese Government in Beijing to honor the promises that were made to them, and President Trump has said very clearly we want there to be no violence on either side. We want Beijing to handle the situation politically, to resolve this conflict in a way that reflects the basic understanding of one country and two systems, and honor the autonomy that the Hong Kong people are permitted under what China – the Chinese Government of Beijing promised to them.”

The world is watching political developments in Hong Kong as they continue festering with ongoing protests and crackdowns by Beijing. Pompeo added that “We’re all trying to find a political resolution to these protests and the demands of the people there in Hong Kong, and we hope that that happens. In the event that – I think President Trump said – in the event that there was a hand that was too heavy or there was violence that wasn’t reflective of an appropriate response, I think President Trump has said, boy, makes it much harder for him or for anyone to deal with Beijing in trade or other issues….” The Secretary added he is hopeful that this won’t be the case and that there is a positive outcome.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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