Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Situation in Hong Kong

The United States is watching the situation in Hong Kong with grave concern. ‎We condemn violence on all sides, extend our sympathies to victims of violence regardless of their political inclinations, and call for all parties— police and protestors— to exercise restraint.‎ We repeat President Trump’s call for a humane resolution to the protests.

The increased polarization within Hong Kong society underscores the need for a broad-based and sincere dialogue between the government, protestors, and citizenry writ large. The United States urges the Hong Kong government to build on its dialogue with the Hong Kong public and begin efforts to address the underlying concerns driving the protests. We also urge the protestors to respond to efforts at dialogue.

The United States believes that Hong Kong’s autonomy, its adherence to the rule of law, and its commitment to protecting civil liberties are key to preserving its special status under U.S. law, as well as to the success of “One Country, Two Systems” and Hong Kong’s future stability and prosperity. We urge Beijing to honor the commitments it made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration, including commitments that Hong Kong will “enjoy a high degree of autonomy” and that the people of Hong Kong will enjoy human rights the freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly— core values that we share with Hong Kong.

Secretary Pompeo’s Call with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi

The following is attributable to Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus:

Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo spoke today with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi. Secretary Pompeo emphasized that peaceful public demonstrations are a fundamental element of all democracies. The Secretary deplored the death toll among the protesters as a result of the Government of Iraq’s crackdown and use of lethal force, as well as the reports of kidnapped protesters. Secretary Pompeo urged Prime Minister Abd al-Mahdi to take immediate steps to address the protesters’ legitimate grievances by enacting reforms and tackling corruption. He reaffirmed the United States’ enduring commitment to a strong, sovereign, and prosperous Iraq, as outlined in our bilateral Strategic Framework Agreement. Secretary Pompeo pledged to continue to support the Iraqi Security Forces in fighting ISIS.

On South Sudan’s Failure to Form a Unity Government

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The United States is gravely disappointed with the failure of President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar to agree on the formation of a Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity by the established deadline of November 12. Their inability to achieve this basic demonstration of political will for the people of South Sudan calls into question their suitability to continue to lead the nation’s peace process. In light of this development, the United States will reevaluate its relationship with the Government of South Sudan. We will work bilaterally and with the international community to take action against all those impeding South Sudan’s peace process.

The United States looks to work in partnership with the region to establish a new paradigm to achieve peace and a successful political transition in South Sudan and will continue to stand with the people of South Sudan during this difficult period.

International Day to End Impunity for Crimes Against Journalists

In far too many places around the world, journalists are killed, tortured, jailed, and harassed for reporting that exposes the abuses of corrupt regimes, undermines the work of terrorist and criminal organizations, gives voice to overlooked communities, and counters disinformation.

As of December 2018, more than 250 journalists remain jailed around the world, with Turkey, China, and Egypt among the worst offenders. Members of the media and bloggers also remain imprisoned in countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Mexico, and Nicaragua.

On this International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists, the United States remembers those reporters killed while doing their jobs, and calls for an immediate end to all threats, intimidation, and violence against journalists and other media professionals for their work. Our nation’s unwavering support for press freedom is enshrined in our constitution, and the United States will call out those who seek to undermine this essential component of any healthy society.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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