Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

UKRAINE

At a press conference in Germany, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo was questioned about the validity of a setback in US relations with the Ukraine. The United States has provided $390 million in security assistance and defense assistance to the country. The Secretary said the United States will continue to fight corruption there. He added that Europe understands deeply “the challenges of corruption in Ukraine.” Pompeo pointed out that this issue has been at the “center of the State Department’s mission set,” and is something the Department worked on last year and will work on again in 2020 by helping to ensure President Zelensky has the “opportunity to root out corruption inside of his own country.”

IRAN

Iran remains the bad boy on the block when it comes to nuclear issues. Its latest nuclear escalations reflect the regime’s intentions all along: to extort the international community into accepting its violence and terror while it undermines the sovereignty of its neighbors, according to the State Department. In a statement by Secretary Pompeo released this week, he said that members of the international community who are rightly concerned with Iran’s latest attacks and provocations should “imagine how Iran would behave with a nuclear weapon. The United States will never allow this to happen.”

Iran’s expansion of proliferation-sensitive activities raises concerns that Iran is positioning itself to have the option of a rapid nuclear breakout. Pompeo charged that Iran’s leaders are using nuclear extortion and that the world must serious steps to increase pressure.

SYRIA

A senior State Department official claimed Russia’s involvement in the Middle East, and Syria and Turkey in particular, was a desperate act. He added that while the Russians don’t think President of Syria won, they are “comfortable” he will survive. The Russians are trying to determine now to move forward in the region, according to the official. He pointed out that Moscow has “played a fairly large role in ensuring that this constitutional committee [in Geneva] would be set up indicates that they know that they cannot simply embrace Assad’s never say yes, never budge, simply they shall not pass policies. It’s not going to get half the population that’s fled their homes back; it’s not going to get the international community to open up its coffers; it’s not going to get the fighting in the end to stop. So therefore – and not going to get all of the armies that are now swirling around inside Syria to go home. So therefore, they’re willing to do this.”

CHINA

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The Uighur minority in western China continue to be threatened, arrested, tortured and harmed in other ways by the government in Beijing. In response to the ongoing harassment and ill-treatment of this minority Secretary Pompeo issued a strong statement condemning Beijing’s actions in the region. It said the “United States remains deeply troubled by multiple reports that the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has harassed, imprisoned, or arbitrarily detained family members of Uighur Muslim activists and survivors of Xinjiang internment camps who have made their stories public. In some cases, these abuses occurred shortly after meetings with senior State Department officials…The courage of Uighur advocates to speak out is vital to unearthing the truth about the PRC’s abuses of human rights, including repression of freedom of religion. We once again call on Beijing to cease all harassment of Uighurs living outside of China, to release all those arbitrarily detained, and to allow families to communicate freely without repercussions.” In a recent interview the Secretary pointed out that the world must recognize what is happening in China and stand up against the atrocities.

EUROPE

The European allies of the United States faced criticism by Secretary Pompeo for their lack of resolve in implementing economic sanctions against Iran and terrorist groups including Hezbollah, Hamas, and others. He did acknowledge that recently Europe is beginning to recognize that the Iranians are moving in the wrong direction. Referring to reports of Iran’s enrichment of uranium, fissile material, the Secretary noted that he believes “the Europeans will come to see this for what it is: a regime that is intent on using nuclear – nuclear material to blackmail, to try and extort money from Europe or from the West.” Washington is continuing to urge its European allies to support sanctions.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.