Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

NORTH KOREA

Intelligence sources believe North Korea has once again fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) just days ahead of upcoming talks with the United States on denuclearization of the country. The last known submarine launch by the North occurred in August 2016 when a ballistic missile flew about 310 miles. The maximum SLBM range is believed to be about 800 miles. It was the 11^th in a series of launches this year. This most recent test was at a high angle and did not travel the missile’s maximum possible flight range.

ITALY

In response to the Pope’s call for “building bridges, not walls” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said: “It’s a dangerous journey across Mexico into the United States. A much better solution is to try and create the conditions on the ground in those countries where those people can thrive. We feel the same way about migration all across the world. The best solution to these migration challenges is to create safety, security, and prosperity in the home countries of these people. It’s where they, frankly, want to be themselves.” The US and the Holy See both agree that developing institutions and economies is a critical step in helping places thrive and grow.

CHINA

While traveling in Italy Secretary Pompeo was asked about the danger of China’s 5G technology to the security of the Atlantic alliance. He responded that the Atlantic alliance is not at risk and that this danger is “overblown.” Pompeo explained that every piece of information traveling across a network is at risk and that if it is controlled by China it presents additional and unique challenges.

“We’ve seen military-civil cooperation inside of China. We’ve seen the connectivity between Chinese state-owned enterprises and their government. And what we’re asking each country to do, Italy included, is to make their own sovereign decision about the right approach, but do so with eyes wide open about the potential risks of an ordinary Italian citizen’s data being transmitted across the network that was accessible by the Chinese Communist Party.”

LIBYA

The situation in Libya is complicated and in need of a political solution according to Secretary Pompeo. He said the first step is to ensure those outside Libya providing arms, weapons systems, and munitions cease delivery to reduce the violence. Pompeo said it will require nearby countries to change their mindset from searching for a military victory to seeking a political solution. He added that “We need to get there as quickly as possible.”

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RUSSIA

On September 30 the State Department issued a statement notifying the public that the Administration is continuing to take action in response to “Russian attempts to influence U.S. democratic processes.” It imposed sanctions on four entities and seven individuals saying that it serves as a warning to “any actors who continue to engage with these individuals, companies, aircraft, or vessel may also be subject to future sanctions. The U.S. government will continue to work to ensure that Prigozhin and others like him find no refuge or comfort as long as they carry out destabilizing activities that threaten the interests of the United States and its allies and partners.”

The State Department is pushing back against Russian attempts to interfere in US election politics in an attempt to subvert the democratic process. A State Department official said that it will not hesitate to impose additional costs on Russia if it continues its malevolent activities.

IRAN

President Trump announced a Presidential Proclamation restricting entry into the United States for senior Iranian government officials and members of their families. Under this proclamation, designated senior regime officials and their families will no longer be allowed entry into the United States. The document stated that “No longer will elites reap the benefits of a free society while the Iranian people suffer under the regime’s corruption and mismanagement.”

Iran’s belligerent behavior toward the United States and its neighboring countries has been cause for alarm as the regime continues to threaten peace and stability in the region. The President, in his recent talk at the United Nations, called for Iran’s leaders to stop stealing money from its citizens and then using it to fund protracted violence inside Iran and abroad. The impact of American sanctions is having an effect on Iran’s economy. The question that remains unanswered is will it be enough to change the regime’s behavior and in time to avoid a serious regional war.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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