Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SYRIA

The United States was able to push Syria into accepting a constitutional committee under UN Resolution 2254, according to Jim Jeffrey, US Special Representative for Syria Engagement and for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. He said that it is to be launched in the “coming weeks” and that “there may be a glimmer of hope that this conflict can be ended the right way.” ISIS is still around and “it contributes to the insecurity and the problems in Syria,” Jeffrey added.

The United States plans to provide an additional 4.5 million to support the OPCW (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) mandate to investigate chemical weapons use in Syria. The funds will support two core functions: help OPCW determine if chemical weapons were used; and to identify who did it. Ambassador Jeffrey noted that the United States still fears that “the regime, which has very weak infantry forces, will try to use chemical weapons once again to make up for its inability to seize ground by combat power.”

The second area of concern around the recent chemical weapons attack, according to Jeffrey, is that “Russia has its advisory teams throughout the entire command and staff of the Syrian army at all levels. These are the best soldiers Russia has. They are extremely experienced, we deal with them every day on deconfliction and other things. They are first-class – we see their first-class work, staff work, their first-class professionalism. It is very hard for me to think that professionals as good as that, the way they are spread out, would not have known something like this, which is a very unique event. It’s the first time it’s happened in over a year.”

CHINA

On Thursday a senior State Department official said “the US is going to stand firm on our position [on China], especially where it regards things like human rights.” He pointed out that Washington has raised Xinjiang before without a response from Beijing. The State Department plans to continue “elevating the level of visibility until not just the PRC but the world and others take notice.” But, the official warned, the US wants to give China time to respond.

On Hong Kong the official pointed out that as “the President has said before, as the Secretary has said, the Hong Kong people are just asking for what they already had. They want the Basic Law to remain as agreed.” In recent years there has been a distinct trend in China whereby the government says one thing and then takes an opposing action. In 2015 there was a Rose Garden statement about non-militarization of the South China Sea features by the Chinese. That quickly disappeared as China increasing its militarization of the region. Hong Kong currently is experiencing a similar squeeze, according to the State Department official.

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REFUGEE ADMISSIONS TO THE UNITED STATES

The Department of State, along with the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Health and Human Services, submitted the President’s annual Report to Congress on Proposed Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020. According to the State Department, the official Presidential Determination on Refugee Admissions Numbers for FY 2020 will be issued following consultation with Congress.

The US anticipates receiving more than 368,000 new refugees and asylum claims in FY 2020. Of them, 18,000 would be refugees that the government proposes to resettle under the new refugee ceiling. In addition, the government also anticipates processing more than 350,000 individuals in new asylum cases. As of 2019 it is estimated there are 71 million people displaced around the world. The US is concentrating its efforts on rebuilding communities and improving security so families can return to their homes in places such as Bangladesh, Colombia, and Turkey.

NORTH KOREA

The North Koreans have proposed working-level meetings by the end of September, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. But, he added, “We have not been able to make those happen, and we don’t have a date yet when we’ll be able to get together.” He said the United States is prepared to meet with North Korean officials and that engaging in conversations that can advance the agenda set out in Singapore about 18 months ago are important.

The Secretary said he looks forward to and hopes “the phone rings and that we get that call and we get that chance to find a place and a time that work for the North Koreans and that we can deliver on the commitments that Chairman Kim and President Trump made. But I don’t have that in hand yet.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.