Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAQ

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in a talk at the 40^th anniversary luncheon of Concerned women for America, announced that the US is providing $340 million to support Iraq’s religious and ethnic minorities, including Christians. He pointed out: “When religious freedom is denied, a host of other freedoms are often denied alongside it. This is especially true for women and girls. We’ve seen this with the enslavement of Yazidi women by ISIS in the Middle East and with the assault and kidnapping of Nigerian girls by Boko Haram.”

Today, 83% of the world in living in nations that threaten, restrict or totally deny religious freedom.

AFGHANISTAN

The President reiterated recently his goal was achieving peace in Afghanistan and bringing our troops home. According to the State Department Spokesperson, this remains the objective although it will not be easy. Protecting the homeland continues to remain at the center of discussions for the President’s entire security team. Secretary Pompeo on Monday said he hopes “we can get them back to the negotiating table; we hope we can get the Taliban to make a commitment to break from al-Qaida and to reduce violence in the country. If we can get those three commitments, we’ll reduce the need for America’s young men and women to put their lives at risk by going and serving in this faraway place.”

Secretary Pompeo, in a recent interview, pointed out that he believed that the President was absolutely right to cancel the talks as they are, and that this “is the direction that the President has given us for now.”

How we get there, he added, “obviously is going to diverge from how we thought we were going to get there two weeks ago.” Pompeo noted that the Administration will “work on a path forward in Afghanistan that continues to be inclusive of the Afghan Government, of women, of civil society, of all elements in Afghanistan.”

IRAN

The Iranian regime recently delivered oil to Syria, according to the State Department. That “fuel goes straight into the tanks of troops that are slaughtering innocent Syrians, and that’s something – again, the Iranians lied about this,” according to the State Spokesperson. She added that it should be no surprise as Iran also lied to the EU and the international community.

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The State Department has been calling out the Iranian regime for a while on oil deliveries. The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control identified Adrian Darya as “blocked property” on August 30th and has filed a civil complaint against the vessel. The illicit oil again goes to the Assad regime. The Spokesperson said that: “…the thing that is incredibly troubling about that is we know exactly what the Assad regime is using that for. They’re using it to slaughter Syrians.

NORTH KOREA

The North Korean foreign ministry recently asked the United States for the new conditions of negotiations. The State Department Spokesperson said the Administration’s goal “has not changed and will not change for North Korea.” A denuclearized North Korea remains the end objective. The regime has continued to fire test missiles in an attempt to draw the US to the negotiating table on its terms without success.

TERRORISM

On Tuesday the President signed an Executive Order modernizing and expanding sanctions to combat terrorism. According to the State Department, this Executive Order – the most significant update of terrorism designation authorities since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks – enhances the United States’ ability to target and deprive terrorists and their enablers of financial, material, and logistical support worldwide.

The goal it to expand the government’s counterterrorism authorities to enable it to more effectively sanction the leaders of terrorist organizations, as well as those who participate in training to commit acts of terrorism. This Order also puts foreign financial institutions on notice that they risk sanctions if they knowingly conduct or facilitate any significant transactions on behalf of designated terrorists.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.