Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAQ

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in a talk at the 40^th anniversary luncheon of Concerned women for America, announced that the US is providing $340 million to support Iraq’s religious and ethnic minorities, including Christians. He pointed out: “When religious freedom is denied, a host of other freedoms are often denied alongside it. This is especially true for women and girls. We’ve seen this with the enslavement of Yazidi women by ISIS in the Middle East and with the assault and kidnapping of Nigerian girls by Boko Haram.”

Today, 83% of the world in living in nations that threaten, restrict or totally deny religious freedom.

AFGHANISTAN

The President reiterated recently his goal was achieving peace in Afghanistan and bringing our troops home. According to the State Department Spokesperson, this remains the objective although it will not be easy. Protecting the homeland continues to remain at the center of discussions for the President’s entire security team. Secretary Pompeo on Monday said he hopes “we can get them back to the negotiating table; we hope we can get the Taliban to make a commitment to break from al-Qaida and to reduce violence in the country. If we can get those three commitments, we’ll reduce the need for America’s young men and women to put their lives at risk by going and serving in this faraway place.”

Secretary Pompeo, in a recent interview, pointed out that he believed that the President was absolutely right to cancel the talks as they are, and that this “is the direction that the President has given us for now.”

How we get there, he added, “obviously is going to diverge from how we thought we were going to get there two weeks ago.” Pompeo noted that the Administration will “work on a path forward in Afghanistan that continues to be inclusive of the Afghan Government, of women, of civil society, of all elements in Afghanistan.”

IRAN

The Iranian regime recently delivered oil to Syria, according to the State Department. That “fuel goes straight into the tanks of troops that are slaughtering innocent Syrians, and that’s something – again, the Iranians lied about this,” according to the State Spokesperson. She added that it should be no surprise as Iran also lied to the EU and the international community.

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The State Department has been calling out the Iranian regime for a while on oil deliveries. The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control identified Adrian Darya as “blocked property” on August 30th and has filed a civil complaint against the vessel. The illicit oil again goes to the Assad regime. The Spokesperson said that: “…the thing that is incredibly troubling about that is we know exactly what the Assad regime is using that for. They’re using it to slaughter Syrians.

NORTH KOREA

The North Korean foreign ministry recently asked the United States for the new conditions of negotiations. The State Department Spokesperson said the Administration’s goal “has not changed and will not change for North Korea.” A denuclearized North Korea remains the end objective. The regime has continued to fire test missiles in an attempt to draw the US to the negotiating table on its terms without success.

TERRORISM

On Tuesday the President signed an Executive Order modernizing and expanding sanctions to combat terrorism. According to the State Department, this Executive Order – the most significant update of terrorism designation authorities since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks – enhances the United States’ ability to target and deprive terrorists and their enablers of financial, material, and logistical support worldwide.

The goal it to expand the government’s counterterrorism authorities to enable it to more effectively sanction the leaders of terrorist organizations, as well as those who participate in training to commit acts of terrorism. This Order also puts foreign financial institutions on notice that they risk sanctions if they knowingly conduct or facilitate any significant transactions on behalf of designated terrorists.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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