Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

According to the State Department, the Trump administration has implemented an unprecedented pressure campaign on Iran’s leaders. with two objectives: First, to deprive the Iranian regime of the money it needs to support its destabilizing activities. The two-pronged approach first attempts to force the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the negotiating table to conclude a comprehensive and enduring deal.

“The comprehensive deal we seek with the Iranian regime should address four key areas: its nuclear program, its ballistic missile development and proliferation, its support for terrorist groups and proxies, and its treatment and illegal detention of U.S. citizens, stated Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.”

Prior to the reimposition of sanctions and accelerated our pressure campaign, Iran was increasing its malign activity, even under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The Secretary pointed out that these actions included expansive missile testing and proliferation, continuing to unjustly detain American citizens, and deepening its involvement in regional conflicts.

In recent years Iran has provided funding, weapons and training to the Houthis in Yemen, prolonging the conflict and their suffering. In Syria, Iran continues to support a regime that has killed hundreds of thousands, has displaced millions of its own citizens, and spreads violence throughout the country. In Lebanon, Iran uses Hezbollah as a proxy in its battle against the state of Israel.

U.S. pressure is beginning to reverse these trends according to the Trump Administration. The regime and its proxies are weaker and recently Iranian-backed militias have stated that Iran no longer has enough money to pay them as much as in the past and has enacted austerity plans. Non-military sanctions and other actions often take a longer time to impact a country than military warfare. They raise the cost of expansionism for Iran while reducing US casualties from a potential military conflict. The picture is improving as in 2019 Iran cuts its defense budget by 28% and, specifically, cut 17% from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

VENEZUELA

On August 5, President Trump signed an Executive Order blocking all property and interests in property of the Government of Venezuela that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within possession or control of any United States person.

This Executive Order, reported the State Department, is designed to directly target the former Maduro regime and those who support it, while exempting transactions related to humanitarian activity, including the provision of articles such as food, clothing, and medicine intended to be used to relieve human suffering. OFAC has concurrently issued a general license authorizing transactions with Interim President Juan Guaido, the National Assembly, and individuals appointed or designated by Guaido.

It is not an embargo, but remains a significant action is in response to the continuing usurpation of power by Maduro and persons affiliated with him from the legitimate interim government of Interim President Guaido, as well as human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention of Venezuelan citizens, interference with freedom of expression, including for members of the media, and ongoing attempts to undermine Interim President Guaido and the democratically elected National Assembly’s exercise of legitimate authority in Venezuela.

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Maduro’s repression of Venezuelans, in combination with the corruption and mismanagement by his illegitimate government, has dramatically negatively impacted the quality of life for average citizens who lack access to food, water, medicine and electricity, causing one of the worst man-made humanitarian disasters in the modern world.

AUSTRALIA

Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo along with the US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper met in Sydney Australia this past week to set a path forward for the Australia–U.S. alliance.

The two governments agreed to support a Trilateral Infrastructure Partnership mission to Southeast Asia later this year to help further build effective institutions and coordinated development in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the State Department, the two governments are working together to secure a reliable and affordable source of energy for the area, promote freedom of navigation and overflight, and other lawful uses of the sea.

It is expected to include a sustainable development program for the Mekong Delta to help improve water governance, reduce transnational crime, and strengthen ASEAN centrality.

During meetings in Sydney officials of both governments reaffirmed the need for North Korea to abandon its weapons of mass destruction and missile programs and emphasized a need for the international community to maintain pressure on the Kim regime. Secretary Pompeo also discussed how to support freedom of navigation in the vital sea lanes of the Middle East and prevent a resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and prevent it from spreading to its affiliates in the Indo-Pacific.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.