Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CUBA

One of the punitive measures the US Government uses to influence governments to change their undesirable behavior is to sanction offending officials from that nation. The Cuban government has shown itself to be such an offending country in a number of cases. Most recently the State Department announced that Cuba is engaging in “exploitative and coercive labor practices while it earns money on the backs of its citizens through its overseas medical missions program.”

To address this labor abuse, the Trump Administration has imposed visa restrictions on certain Cuban officials and other individuals responsible for these coercive labor practices under the Immigration and Nationality Act Section 212(a)(3)(C).

The US State Department has documented numerous cases where Cuban citizens are forced to work long hours and are housed in unsafe areas. In addition, reports indicate the Cuban government is “compelling Cuban medical professionals to advance the regime’s political agenda.”

NORTH KOREA

When questioned about recent missiles by North Korea the State Department spokesperson said that the US is aware of the launches, and that what would be most productive is for “Chairman Kim and his staff and for President Trump and all of his staff to continue upon the path that was laid out for us both in Vietnam and at the DMZ, and that is a diplomatic resolution and the end of North Korea’s nuclear weapons.”

Sanctions are to remain in place, according to the State Department, until the Trump Administration has determined that the goal of ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is achieved. The goal in US negotiations with the North Korean regime is to fully denuclearize the North and to bring it into the international community as a normal state. At that time, the spokesperson said, sanctions could be removed and there could be economic cooperation.

TURKEY

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Turkish forces are massing on the northeastern Syrian border, the Russians have delivered the S-400 missile to Turkey, and Special Envoy James Jeffrey, in an ongoing effort to bring peace to the region, met with Turkish officials who rejected the US position on Syria. According to the State Department, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar met with Turkish generals, and said he expected the United States to review Turkey’s proposals and respond. He added “We [Turkey]… cannot tolerate a delay, and we will take the initiative necessary.”

The Trump Administration’s goals in Syria remain to prevent a security vacuum that destabilizes the area. The plan to accomplish this goal is to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns while also protecting American partners in the fight against ISIS.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

In addressing international shipping concerns in the Strait of Hormuz Secretary of State Michael Pompeo spoke with Bret Baier of Fox News, saying “We are at the beginning stages of developing our maritime security initiative. We’ll be a part of that, but so will nations from all across the world.” The United States is working with its partners and Allies to protect civilian shipping and ensure international commerce through the Strait of Hormuz. The Maritime Security Initiative, known as “Operation Sentinel” has a goal of safeguarding freedom of navigation and maritime security in the Middle East by promoting the safe passage of vessels and increasing surveillance capabilities. To that end on July 25, US Central Command hosted senior representatives from allies and US partner nations to discuss this new maritime security initiative at MacDill Air Force Base, Florida. This is an ongoing diplomatic initiative in response to recent Iranian actions in the Strait in which it seized two foreign oil tankers.

Washington is conducting its “maximum pressure” campaign to tr to force Iran to change its belligerent behavior. According to Pompeo, Washington has a two-pronged approach which is designed to put economic pressure on the regime in Tehran and also to convince the Iranian leadership that the cost of engaging in their behavior is too high to continue it. Washington hopes the approach will cause Iran to sit down and negotiate in a joint effort to stop terrorism in the region.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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