Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

MEXICO

At a press conference on June 10, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo discussed the evolving illegal immigration situation we face along the Mexican border. He stated that President Trump is doing exactly what he said he would do and is the first president in history to act effectively on his promise.

The US has agreed to Mexico placing 6,000 Mexican National Guard troops along the southern border of the United States to help stem the tide of illegal immigration. According to Pompeo, this is the “biggest effort to date” by Mexico.

Those crossing the U.S. southern border to seek asylum, he added, “will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await their adjudication of their asylum claims.” Past numbers of asylum seekers averaged a few hundred per day. In recent months this number has exploded with some crossing points experiencing several thousand individuals attempting to enter the United States daily. The numbers are so large that ICE reports only 30% of their resources can be devoted to criminal activity as 70% are assigned to handle illegal immigration now.

The Secretary attributes movement on the issue to President Trump’s announcement that he will impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods if the government doesn’t take action. An entire team of Mexican negotiators arrived to begin resolving the dispute. He said: “It’s what prompted this series of conversations that took on a level of seriousness and a timed commitment that we were committed to getting done before the weekend. And, so it’s a fundamentally different commitment about doing this across the entire border at scale.” Washington plans to review the situation daily to ensure Mexico is making progress and keeping its commitment.

HONG KONG

The State Department is urging all sides to use restraint and to refrain from violence following protests in Hong Kong. The Spokesperson added that Washington believes “these peaceful protests are incredibly important” and that it’s important for the Hong Kong Government to “respect these freedom of expressions, respect the right of people to peacefully assemble.”

Proposed legislation in Hong Kong would allow authorities to subjugate Hong Kong residents to the Chinese government as it relates to some of their fundamental rights and potentially move those charged with a crime to mainland China for prosecution. Under the One Country-Two party System Hong Kong operates under a framework of a Chinese autonomous region.

IRAN

After the two recent attacks on oil tankers near the Gulf of Hormuz, the United States is not backing off pressuring the Iranian regime to stop terrorizing innocent people.

“Our position on the JCPOA,” according to the State Department Spokesperson, “has not changed.” Washington does not want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. “Whether it’s the JCPOA or our maximum pressure campaign towards Iran – holistically. It’s not – it’s certainly about a nuclear weapon, and I know that our European counterparts would like the Iranians to stay in the JCPOA. We certainly do not want them to have a nuclear weapon,” according to the Spokesperson.

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NORTH KOREA

The United States is seeking a fundamental transformation of US-North Korea relations. With that the Trump Administration hopes to build lasting peace on the Korean peninsula.

The State Department Spokesperson pointed out that “We’re looking for a complete denuclearization. The President… maintains a warm relationship with Chairman Kim, and here at the State Department, we are ready and willing to continue engagement on working-level negotiations with the North Koreans.” In addition to a verifiable denuclearization the Administration says its looks forward to building a “bright economic future for the North Korean people.”

Washington is working to ensure that North Korean commitments, made a year ago, come to fruition. During this period the State Department confirmed economic sanctions will remain in effect.

CHINA

The United States is growing increasingly concerned that China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” is not simply about commercial projects that happen to be in strategically significant areas of the world, but that each one is a national security initiative designed by Beijing to appear as a commercial operation. Washington has reminded countries in China’s sightline that Beijing is attempting to “use state-owned enterprises to gain political influence and power.” Pompeo said that we “welcome that investment if it’s purely commercial and it’s designed for a noble end, but we have to be ever mindful of the national security risks presented….”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.