Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

MEXICO

At a press conference on June 10, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo discussed the evolving illegal immigration situation we face along the Mexican border. He stated that President Trump is doing exactly what he said he would do and is the first president in history to act effectively on his promise.

The US has agreed to Mexico placing 6,000 Mexican National Guard troops along the southern border of the United States to help stem the tide of illegal immigration. According to Pompeo, this is the “biggest effort to date” by Mexico.

Those crossing the U.S. southern border to seek asylum, he added, “will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await their adjudication of their asylum claims.” Past numbers of asylum seekers averaged a few hundred per day. In recent months this number has exploded with some crossing points experiencing several thousand individuals attempting to enter the United States daily. The numbers are so large that ICE reports only 30% of their resources can be devoted to criminal activity as 70% are assigned to handle illegal immigration now.

The Secretary attributes movement on the issue to President Trump’s announcement that he will impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods if the government doesn’t take action. An entire team of Mexican negotiators arrived to begin resolving the dispute. He said: “It’s what prompted this series of conversations that took on a level of seriousness and a timed commitment that we were committed to getting done before the weekend. And, so it’s a fundamentally different commitment about doing this across the entire border at scale.” Washington plans to review the situation daily to ensure Mexico is making progress and keeping its commitment.

HONG KONG

The State Department is urging all sides to use restraint and to refrain from violence following protests in Hong Kong. The Spokesperson added that Washington believes “these peaceful protests are incredibly important” and that it’s important for the Hong Kong Government to “respect these freedom of expressions, respect the right of people to peacefully assemble.”

Proposed legislation in Hong Kong would allow authorities to subjugate Hong Kong residents to the Chinese government as it relates to some of their fundamental rights and potentially move those charged with a crime to mainland China for prosecution. Under the One Country-Two party System Hong Kong operates under a framework of a Chinese autonomous region.

IRAN

After the two recent attacks on oil tankers near the Gulf of Hormuz, the United States is not backing off pressuring the Iranian regime to stop terrorizing innocent people.

“Our position on the JCPOA,” according to the State Department Spokesperson, “has not changed.” Washington does not want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. “Whether it’s the JCPOA or our maximum pressure campaign towards Iran – holistically. It’s not – it’s certainly about a nuclear weapon, and I know that our European counterparts would like the Iranians to stay in the JCPOA. We certainly do not want them to have a nuclear weapon,” according to the Spokesperson.

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NORTH KOREA

The United States is seeking a fundamental transformation of US-North Korea relations. With that the Trump Administration hopes to build lasting peace on the Korean peninsula.

The State Department Spokesperson pointed out that “We’re looking for a complete denuclearization. The President… maintains a warm relationship with Chairman Kim, and here at the State Department, we are ready and willing to continue engagement on working-level negotiations with the North Koreans.” In addition to a verifiable denuclearization the Administration says its looks forward to building a “bright economic future for the North Korean people.”

Washington is working to ensure that North Korean commitments, made a year ago, come to fruition. During this period the State Department confirmed economic sanctions will remain in effect.

CHINA

The United States is growing increasingly concerned that China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” is not simply about commercial projects that happen to be in strategically significant areas of the world, but that each one is a national security initiative designed by Beijing to appear as a commercial operation. Washington has reminded countries in China’s sightline that Beijing is attempting to “use state-owned enterprises to gain political influence and power.” Pompeo said that we “welcome that investment if it’s purely commercial and it’s designed for a noble end, but we have to be ever mindful of the national security risks presented….”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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