Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

In recent days there has been an escalation in the security situation with Iran. In a written statement on May 9 Secretary of State Pompeo accused Iran of an escalating series of threatening actions and statements toward the United States over the past month. The Secretary said that Washington is not seeking to go to war with Iran but after that country’s “40 years of killing American soldiers, attacking American facilities, and taking American hostages is a constant reminder that we must defend ourselves.”

Should Iran use a proxy against US interests or citizens the Secretary said the answer will be “swift and decisive.” He added that America’s patience should not be mistaken for a lack of resolve.

This week is the one year anniversary of Washington’s new Iran strategy. Special Representative Hook said: “By nearly every measure, the regime is weaker today than when we took office two years ago. Its proxies are underfunded and demoralized. Unless the regime demonstrates a change in behavior, the pressure on Tehran will mount.”

Referencing the anniversary Secretary Pompeo said Iran chose this date to announce that “it intends to expand its nuclear program is in defiance of international norms and a blatant attempt to hold the world hostage. Its threat to renew nuclear work that could shorten the time to develop a nuclear weapon underscores the continuing challenge the Iranian regime poses to peace and security worldwide.”

Pompeo added that the United States is committed to denying the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon and Washington will continue to impose maximum pressure on the regime until it abandons its destabilizing ambitions.

CHINA

As talks with China ended Beijing said there are three remaining areas of disagreement with the US on trade. Washington’s response was to impose further sanctions on China until it allows “trade to be open, fair, free, [and] transparent.”

Pompeo, in response to a question from a reporter, said that “We want trade deals not to be national security deals under a patina of commerce. China is a different nation. When it goes to Africa and offers infrastructure, it is almost always the case that it has a national security element to it. We don’t compete that way. The United Kingdom doesn’t compete that way. And we want to make sure those nations, when they choose China, know that there may be some cheap deal or something that appears cheap, but we want to make sure they know that that threat is real and that if China loans you money, they may well foreclose.”

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GREAT BRITAIN

While in London Secretary Pompeo participated in talks with his British counterpart, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, concerning London’s consideration of allowing Huawei 5G to operate in Great Britain.

Pompeo said that he had “great confidence” that the United Kingdom will never take an action that will break the special relationship it has with the United States. “With respect to 5G,” he added, “we’re continuing to have technical discussions. We’re making our views very well known. From America’s perspective, each country has a sovereign right to make its own decision about how to deal with the challenge.”

The United States, Pompeo pointed out, has an obligation to ensure that “places where we will operate, places where American information is, places where we have our national security at risk, that they operate inside trusted networks, and we will – that’s what we’ll do.”

ARCTICIn a May 6 speech in Finland Secretary of State Pompeo has strong for China and Russia concerning their Arctic policies. The Secretary stated that Washington had a deep understanding of what Russia was doing in the region. ”It’s visible; you can see it.” He added that the US “national security team makes sure that we do the work to track their actions here as well. We want every nation to have the opportunity to participate in the great things that can be here in the Arctic region. We want fair and open markets, we want free transit, we want the rule of law… What we don’t want is countries like Russia using military power to deny passage for ships that have a right to pass, and to ban things that are inconsistent with international law. If there are good neighbors here in the Arctic region and if Russia becomes one of them, we would welcome that.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.