Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

In recent days there has been an escalation in the security situation with Iran. In a written statement on May 9 Secretary of State Pompeo accused Iran of an escalating series of threatening actions and statements toward the United States over the past month. The Secretary said that Washington is not seeking to go to war with Iran but after that country’s “40 years of killing American soldiers, attacking American facilities, and taking American hostages is a constant reminder that we must defend ourselves.”

Should Iran use a proxy against US interests or citizens the Secretary said the answer will be “swift and decisive.” He added that America’s patience should not be mistaken for a lack of resolve.

This week is the one year anniversary of Washington’s new Iran strategy. Special Representative Hook said: “By nearly every measure, the regime is weaker today than when we took office two years ago. Its proxies are underfunded and demoralized. Unless the regime demonstrates a change in behavior, the pressure on Tehran will mount.”

Referencing the anniversary Secretary Pompeo said Iran chose this date to announce that “it intends to expand its nuclear program is in defiance of international norms and a blatant attempt to hold the world hostage. Its threat to renew nuclear work that could shorten the time to develop a nuclear weapon underscores the continuing challenge the Iranian regime poses to peace and security worldwide.”

Pompeo added that the United States is committed to denying the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon and Washington will continue to impose maximum pressure on the regime until it abandons its destabilizing ambitions.

CHINA

As talks with China ended Beijing said there are three remaining areas of disagreement with the US on trade. Washington’s response was to impose further sanctions on China until it allows “trade to be open, fair, free, [and] transparent.”

Pompeo, in response to a question from a reporter, said that “We want trade deals not to be national security deals under a patina of commerce. China is a different nation. When it goes to Africa and offers infrastructure, it is almost always the case that it has a national security element to it. We don’t compete that way. The United Kingdom doesn’t compete that way. And we want to make sure those nations, when they choose China, know that there may be some cheap deal or something that appears cheap, but we want to make sure they know that that threat is real and that if China loans you money, they may well foreclose.”

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GREAT BRITAIN

While in London Secretary Pompeo participated in talks with his British counterpart, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, concerning London’s consideration of allowing Huawei 5G to operate in Great Britain.

Pompeo said that he had “great confidence” that the United Kingdom will never take an action that will break the special relationship it has with the United States. “With respect to 5G,” he added, “we’re continuing to have technical discussions. We’re making our views very well known. From America’s perspective, each country has a sovereign right to make its own decision about how to deal with the challenge.”

The United States, Pompeo pointed out, has an obligation to ensure that “places where we will operate, places where American information is, places where we have our national security at risk, that they operate inside trusted networks, and we will – that’s what we’ll do.”

ARCTICIn a May 6 speech in Finland Secretary of State Pompeo has strong for China and Russia concerning their Arctic policies. The Secretary stated that Washington had a deep understanding of what Russia was doing in the region. ”It’s visible; you can see it.” He added that the US “national security team makes sure that we do the work to track their actions here as well. We want every nation to have the opportunity to participate in the great things that can be here in the Arctic region. We want fair and open markets, we want free transit, we want the rule of law… What we don’t want is countries like Russia using military power to deny passage for ships that have a right to pass, and to ban things that are inconsistent with international law. If there are good neighbors here in the Arctic region and if Russia becomes one of them, we would welcome that.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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