Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SYRIA

Once again Syria is in the news for refusing a UN request to deliver a convoy of urgently needed humanitarian aid to the Rubkan encampment. The US State Department called the action appalling and said that Washington remains “deeply concerned” about the deteriorating situation. The Holy Month of Ramadan is to begin with the majority of the Rubkan encampment composed of suffering women and children. Reports indicate many have not eaten for days due to the lack of UN access and basic food supplies.

UN Security Resolution 2449 calls for the organization to have unfettered and consistent access not only to the encampment but to all vulnerable populations throughout the country. The United States does not impede any person from leaving the encampment. To date, the US is the largest single donor, providing more that $9.5 billion in humanitarian assistance to those affected inside Syria since the start of the crisis.

IRAN

Referring to US attempts over the past year to get countries to reduce their importation of Iranian oil to zero, Brian Hook, the Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State said that balancing our national security and economic interests puts “…us in the position to not issue any new exceptions, to [further] our campaign of maximum economic pressure on the Iranian regime.”

The current set of Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) are due to expire May 2, 2019. By continuing the SRE’s Washington is attempting to force Iran to change its destructive behavior, respect its citizens rights, and return to the negotiating table.

Historically, oil composes about 40% of the Iranian regime’s annual revenue stream and is the number one source of cash, according to Hook. Prior to the imposition of sanctions oil sales accounted for $50 billion in revenue. This the start of sanctions last May that number has been reduced by more than $10 billion. The United States has sanctions nearly 70 Iranian banks and over 100 corporations. Recent reports indicate that some Hezbollah fighter are receiving only 50% of the regular pay from Iran as sanctions start impacting the regime’s ability to fund terrorism.

LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH

For the first time the State Department, under its Rewards for Justice Program, is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of the global terrorist organization Lebanese Hezballah.

The organization receives funding from Iran and generates about $1 billion annually from a combination of direct financial support from Iran, international businesses and investments, donor networks and money laundering activities.

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JAPAN

During meetings in Washington last week the US and Japan reaffirmed their bilateral security and defense relationship through their continuing efforts to build and strengthen a free and open Indo-Pacific. The talks also emphasized the importance of deepening cooperation on space capabilities and reaffirmed joint defense priorities. The bilateral discussions included calls for “full respect for freedoms of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and reiterated the important of activities that support those principles.

RUSSIA

The State Department Spokesman, Morgan Ortagus, in prepared remarks condemned the decision by President Putin to provide expedited Russian citizenship to Ukrainians living in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. He stated that “Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He added that President Putin’s decision creates a “serious obstacle to the implementation of the Minsk agreements” and the reintegration of the Donbas region.

The Minsk agreements were signed by Russia and called for the full restoration of Ukrainian government control over eastern Ukraine.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.