Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SYRIA

Once again Syria is in the news for refusing a UN request to deliver a convoy of urgently needed humanitarian aid to the Rubkan encampment. The US State Department called the action appalling and said that Washington remains “deeply concerned” about the deteriorating situation. The Holy Month of Ramadan is to begin with the majority of the Rubkan encampment composed of suffering women and children. Reports indicate many have not eaten for days due to the lack of UN access and basic food supplies.

UN Security Resolution 2449 calls for the organization to have unfettered and consistent access not only to the encampment but to all vulnerable populations throughout the country. The United States does not impede any person from leaving the encampment. To date, the US is the largest single donor, providing more that $9.5 billion in humanitarian assistance to those affected inside Syria since the start of the crisis.

IRAN

Referring to US attempts over the past year to get countries to reduce their importation of Iranian oil to zero, Brian Hook, the Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State said that balancing our national security and economic interests puts “…us in the position to not issue any new exceptions, to [further] our campaign of maximum economic pressure on the Iranian regime.”

The current set of Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) are due to expire May 2, 2019. By continuing the SRE’s Washington is attempting to force Iran to change its destructive behavior, respect its citizens rights, and return to the negotiating table.

Historically, oil composes about 40% of the Iranian regime’s annual revenue stream and is the number one source of cash, according to Hook. Prior to the imposition of sanctions oil sales accounted for $50 billion in revenue. This the start of sanctions last May that number has been reduced by more than $10 billion. The United States has sanctions nearly 70 Iranian banks and over 100 corporations. Recent reports indicate that some Hezbollah fighter are receiving only 50% of the regular pay from Iran as sanctions start impacting the regime’s ability to fund terrorism.

LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH

For the first time the State Department, under its Rewards for Justice Program, is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of the global terrorist organization Lebanese Hezballah.

The organization receives funding from Iran and generates about $1 billion annually from a combination of direct financial support from Iran, international businesses and investments, donor networks and money laundering activities.

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JAPAN

During meetings in Washington last week the US and Japan reaffirmed their bilateral security and defense relationship through their continuing efforts to build and strengthen a free and open Indo-Pacific. The talks also emphasized the importance of deepening cooperation on space capabilities and reaffirmed joint defense priorities. The bilateral discussions included calls for “full respect for freedoms of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and reiterated the important of activities that support those principles.

RUSSIA

The State Department Spokesman, Morgan Ortagus, in prepared remarks condemned the decision by President Putin to provide expedited Russian citizenship to Ukrainians living in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. He stated that “Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He added that President Putin’s decision creates a “serious obstacle to the implementation of the Minsk agreements” and the reintegration of the Donbas region.

The Minsk agreements were signed by Russia and called for the full restoration of Ukrainian government control over eastern Ukraine.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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