India

The United States has inked two new agreements with Indi this week. Secretary of State Pompeo met with Indian Minister of External Affairs Swaraj and Minister of Defense Sitharaman for the first-ever U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Secretary of Defense Mattis and Secretary Pompeo also met with Prime Minister Modi to discuss how to advance the US-Indian relationship. Of particular significance, was the discussion surrounding how the US and India can ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The trip to India included meetings to examine ways the two countries can elevate security cooperation.

The US and India agreed to “enhance our military cooperation with India” as a major defense partner and the two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which will boost our defense collaboration and coordination and the leaders agreed, according to Secretary Pompeo, “on the scope and scale of military cooperation with India as our major defense partner – a unique status that the United States has granted to India.”

In addition to the Agreements talks included pressing global issues such as Afghanistan and North Korea, free trade and investment, and counterterrorism operations. This follows the US Secretary of Commerce recent announcement of Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status for India in August that further facilitate high-technology exports from the United States to India.

Saudi Arabia

The State Department announced: “The United States regards the Saudi-led Coalition’s ‎announcement that it will review their rules of engagement, hold those at fault accountable, and compensate victims following the Joint Incident Assessment Team’s finding that last month’s Sa’ada air strikes lacked justification as an important first step toward full transparency and accountability.” The United States has called on all sides to abide by the Law of Armed Conflict, to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure, and thoroughly investigate and ensure accountability for any violations surrounding attacks on the Yemeni people.

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Secretary of State Pompeo and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Jr. were in Islamabad, Pakistan on September 5 to conduct talks with new Prime Minister Imran Khan, Foreign Minister Qureshi, and Chief of Army Staff Bajwa regarding the U.S.-Pakistan bilateral relations and potential areas for cooperation. They discussed strengthening civilian institutions and the expansion of two-way trade and commercial ties, in addition to deeper counterterrorism efforts. According to the State Department: “In all of his meetings, Secretary Pompeo emphasized the important role Pakistan could play in bringing about a negotiated peace in Afghanistan and conveyed the need for Pakistan to take sustained and decisive measures against terrorists and militants threatening regional peace and stability.”

Asian Energy

An estimated $82 billion annually will be needed in power infrastructure until 2030 to ensure current growth levels, tackle poverty, and address climate change in developing areas in Asia, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The largest developing nation in Asia is China. It already is experiencing rising labor costs, an aging population without adequate social programs, environmental problems and corruption. President Xi Jinping will be challenged to find ways to maintain growth and keep social unrest quiet.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, Asia will need $26 trillion of infrastructure investment to reduce poverty and expand growth. According to Matthew Goodman, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS, Japanese banks lead the world in infrastructure financing, but recent Chinese efforts—the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank—are expanding trade connections and raising China’s profile in developing countries. Already cracks are becoming visible in the Initiative as some African countries are beginning to resent foreign workers from China receiving jobs and repatriating funds.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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