India

The United States has inked two new agreements with Indi this week. Secretary of State Pompeo met with Indian Minister of External Affairs Swaraj and Minister of Defense Sitharaman for the first-ever U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Secretary of Defense Mattis and Secretary Pompeo also met with Prime Minister Modi to discuss how to advance the US-Indian relationship. Of particular significance, was the discussion surrounding how the US and India can ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The trip to India included meetings to examine ways the two countries can elevate security cooperation.

The US and India agreed to “enhance our military cooperation with India” as a major defense partner and the two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which will boost our defense collaboration and coordination and the leaders agreed, according to Secretary Pompeo, “on the scope and scale of military cooperation with India as our major defense partner – a unique status that the United States has granted to India.”

In addition to the Agreements talks included pressing global issues such as Afghanistan and North Korea, free trade and investment, and counterterrorism operations. This follows the US Secretary of Commerce recent announcement of Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status for India in August that further facilitate high-technology exports from the United States to India.

Saudi Arabia

The State Department announced: “The United States regards the Saudi-led Coalition’s ‎announcement that it will review their rules of engagement, hold those at fault accountable, and compensate victims following the Joint Incident Assessment Team’s finding that last month’s Sa’ada air strikes lacked justification as an important first step toward full transparency and accountability.” The United States has called on all sides to abide by the Law of Armed Conflict, to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure, and thoroughly investigate and ensure accountability for any violations surrounding attacks on the Yemeni people.

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Secretary of State Pompeo and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Jr. were in Islamabad, Pakistan on September 5 to conduct talks with new Prime Minister Imran Khan, Foreign Minister Qureshi, and Chief of Army Staff Bajwa regarding the U.S.-Pakistan bilateral relations and potential areas for cooperation. They discussed strengthening civilian institutions and the expansion of two-way trade and commercial ties, in addition to deeper counterterrorism efforts. According to the State Department: “In all of his meetings, Secretary Pompeo emphasized the important role Pakistan could play in bringing about a negotiated peace in Afghanistan and conveyed the need for Pakistan to take sustained and decisive measures against terrorists and militants threatening regional peace and stability.”

Asian Energy

An estimated $82 billion annually will be needed in power infrastructure until 2030 to ensure current growth levels, tackle poverty, and address climate change in developing areas in Asia, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The largest developing nation in Asia is China. It already is experiencing rising labor costs, an aging population without adequate social programs, environmental problems and corruption. President Xi Jinping will be challenged to find ways to maintain growth and keep social unrest quiet.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, Asia will need $26 trillion of infrastructure investment to reduce poverty and expand growth. According to Matthew Goodman, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS, Japanese banks lead the world in infrastructure financing, but recent Chinese efforts—the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank—are expanding trade connections and raising China’s profile in developing countries. Already cracks are becoming visible in the Initiative as some African countries are beginning to resent foreign workers from China receiving jobs and repatriating funds.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.