Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

ARCTIC

In response to a press conference question on US policy in the Arctic, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stated that the “Arctic is a space where there should be freedom of navigation; there should be low tension; there should be security; there should be rule of law; there should be transparency about what’s taking place.”

In recent years the Russian military has become heavily involved in the Arctic region, which represents a potential threat to the United States, its allies, and maritime commerce. In addition to the world’s only nuclear heavy icebreakers, the Russians have developed 10 military air bases above the Arctic Circle. Pompeo added that Washington is working with other democracies to ensure that malevolent powers do not create new or expanded problems in the region which could impact the rest of the world.

In recognition of the Arctic challenges posed by Russia, and to some extend China, the United States is updating its US Coast Guard’s (USCG) aging icebreaker. China operates two heavy icebreakers. While the USCG has two heavy, non-nuclear icebreakers; only one is operational. Both are beyond their expected 30-year service limit. There is a critical need to secure US interests in the region and maritime commerce.

For the first time in 40 years the United States is building a new heavy ice breaker. Congress recently restored $650 million in funding for the ship-building program to begin replacing the Polar Star, the United States’ only working heavy icebreaker. Congress also allotted $20 million in funds to begin purchasing materials for a 2^nd icebreaker, with a goal of building a total of six, three of which are scheduled to be heavy ice breakers. In comparison, Russia operates the world’s only 2 nuclear heavy icebreakers along with 38 non-nuclear heavy icebreakers.

Moscow has 11 additional ships in production making it the dominant force in the region. When complete Russia will be operating 51 icebreakers in the mineral- and oil-rich Arctic environment. This raises additional concerns in the West if Arctic ice continues to melt and opens a year-round passage which military ships from China and eastern Russia could traverse to quickly reach the US East coast and Western Europe.

IRAN

The greatest security challenge in the Middle East is Iran, according to Secretary of State Pompeo. In a press conference in Iceland last week he spoke about how the US and its allies have vanquished ISIS and eliminated the caliphate in Syria. He added that this will allow Washington to withdraw troops but doesn’t end the mission. “We fight ISIS on multiple continents today, but our tactics will change, and they’ll continue to change, and we will adapt just as ISIS adapts. We get the threat from radical Islamic terrorism. President Trump understands this intently. We’re determined to fight them where we find them and to reduce the risk to not only the United States but to our allies,” he said.

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SUDAN

On February 20, 2019, the governments of the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement concerning the escalating conflict in South Sudan, which is in breach of the December 2017 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and the September 2018 revitalized peace agreement.

The statement notes that recently thousands of South Sudanese have been displaced and fled across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo to escape the violence. It also calls on all parties involved, the Government of South Sudan, the SPLM-IO, and the National Salvation Front to end the violence and allow unrestricted access to Yei and the surrounding area for the UN Mission in South Sudan, the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism, and other humanitarian groups.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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