Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

WOMEN AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

In a February 7 statement to the press, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo talked about President Trump’s recent signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum promoting women’s global development and prosperity. The goal, according to Pomeo, is to reach 50 million women by 2025 by fostering economic empowerment, support of workforce development and women entrepreneurs and breaking down barriers to enable women to fully participate in the economy. He added: “We are proud to help launch the new Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative today, and look forward to continuing our work across the United States government, with partner governments and the private sector, to build upon these efforts.”

VENEZUELA

Special Representative for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams updated the press at the Friday, February 8, press conference on the situation in Venezuela. He reported that in the last two weeks, since the democratically elected National Assembly declared Juan Guaido interim president of the country, the United States at 47 other countries, including 23 from Europe, have recognized Guaido as the legitimate interim leader of the country.

Instead of trying to accommodate, Abrams stated, Maduro has manipulated negotiations and tried to stall humanitarian aid, kept political prisoners in jail, abused detainees, and allowed the population to go without food and medicine. According to Abrams, the United States is
“…imposing visa restrictions and revoking the visas of members of the illegitimate constituent assembly. This body has usurped many of the constitutional powers of the National Assembly, the legitimate National Assembly, and embodies Maduro’s destruction of democratic institutions. While I cannot name names because visa information is protected, I can state that we will continue to take action against those destroying Venezuela’s democratic institutions.”

Venezuela, once a thriving economy, rich in natural resources, is now a failing state with hyperinflation. Over 5 million Venezuelans are expected to seek refuge out the country as refugees in 2019. In an attempt to help the starving people the United States is has pledge $20 million in humanitarian support and is moving food and medical aid to the border with the hope that it will be allowed in by former President Maduro’s armed forces.

About 90% of the country’s hospitals lack medical supplies. Venezuela also is experiencing power outages and water shortages in about 70% of the country’s hospitals. Crumbling infrastructure, according to the US Government, has disrupted water and sanitation services, and a collapsing health system has prompted outbreaks of previously eradicated diseases. The result is a regional outbreak of about 17,000 cases of measles with the majority in Venezuela.

IRAN

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Deputy State Department Spokesperson Palladino last Friday acknowledged that we have seen reports that Iran has attempted to launch another satellite into space. He said: “We continue to call upon the Iranian regime to cease immediately all activities that are inconsistent with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, including space vehicle launches.” Iran has pledged to continue its missile program despite international condemnation.

TURKEY

Asked to respond to complaints from Turkish President Erdogan that the U.S. has been too slow on the security zone, a State Department spokesperson said “The United States takes Turkey’s security concerns seriously, and we are actively engaging with Turkey on this matter. And as President Trump just said, we’re working through the course of various discussions, including senior-level meetings…. and we’re trying to promote a stable and secure security relationship for northeast Syria as soon as possible.”

Washington has consistently spoken about how to proceed safely with the withdrawal of American forces in northeast Syria while also stabilizing those areas previously liberated. The United States has repeatedly called for the Syrian Democratic Forces, including the Kurdish component of the SDF, not to engage militarily.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.