Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

WOMEN AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

In a February 7 statement to the press, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo talked about President Trump’s recent signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum promoting women’s global development and prosperity. The goal, according to Pomeo, is to reach 50 million women by 2025 by fostering economic empowerment, support of workforce development and women entrepreneurs and breaking down barriers to enable women to fully participate in the economy. He added: “We are proud to help launch the new Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative today, and look forward to continuing our work across the United States government, with partner governments and the private sector, to build upon these efforts.”

VENEZUELA

Special Representative for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams updated the press at the Friday, February 8, press conference on the situation in Venezuela. He reported that in the last two weeks, since the democratically elected National Assembly declared Juan Guaido interim president of the country, the United States at 47 other countries, including 23 from Europe, have recognized Guaido as the legitimate interim leader of the country.

Instead of trying to accommodate, Abrams stated, Maduro has manipulated negotiations and tried to stall humanitarian aid, kept political prisoners in jail, abused detainees, and allowed the population to go without food and medicine. According to Abrams, the United States is
“…imposing visa restrictions and revoking the visas of members of the illegitimate constituent assembly. This body has usurped many of the constitutional powers of the National Assembly, the legitimate National Assembly, and embodies Maduro’s destruction of democratic institutions. While I cannot name names because visa information is protected, I can state that we will continue to take action against those destroying Venezuela’s democratic institutions.”

Venezuela, once a thriving economy, rich in natural resources, is now a failing state with hyperinflation. Over 5 million Venezuelans are expected to seek refuge out the country as refugees in 2019. In an attempt to help the starving people the United States is has pledge $20 million in humanitarian support and is moving food and medical aid to the border with the hope that it will be allowed in by former President Maduro’s armed forces.

About 90% of the country’s hospitals lack medical supplies. Venezuela also is experiencing power outages and water shortages in about 70% of the country’s hospitals. Crumbling infrastructure, according to the US Government, has disrupted water and sanitation services, and a collapsing health system has prompted outbreaks of previously eradicated diseases. The result is a regional outbreak of about 17,000 cases of measles with the majority in Venezuela.

IRAN

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Deputy State Department Spokesperson Palladino last Friday acknowledged that we have seen reports that Iran has attempted to launch another satellite into space. He said: “We continue to call upon the Iranian regime to cease immediately all activities that are inconsistent with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, including space vehicle launches.” Iran has pledged to continue its missile program despite international condemnation.

TURKEY

Asked to respond to complaints from Turkish President Erdogan that the U.S. has been too slow on the security zone, a State Department spokesperson said “The United States takes Turkey’s security concerns seriously, and we are actively engaging with Turkey on this matter. And as President Trump just said, we’re working through the course of various discussions, including senior-level meetings…. and we’re trying to promote a stable and secure security relationship for northeast Syria as soon as possible.”

Washington has consistently spoken about how to proceed safely with the withdrawal of American forces in northeast Syria while also stabilizing those areas previously liberated. The United States has repeatedly called for the Syrian Democratic Forces, including the Kurdish component of the SDF, not to engage militarily.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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