Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

VENEZUELA

On Thursday Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced that the United States is ready to provide more than $20 million in initial humanitarian assistance to the people of Venezuela. The country is experiencing severe food and medicine shortages due to the country’s political and economic crisis caused by the illegitimate Maduro regime.

In a Media Note, the State Department Spokesperson stated that: “Venezuela’s National Assembly has stressed the need for immediate international humanitarian assistance. In response, the United States is ready to provide emergency aid throughout Venezuela to help meet the increasingly urgent humanitarian needs of Venezuelans affected by this crisis.”

As a country the United States provides more humanitarian and foreign aid than any other nation. Venezuela currently receives robust support as the growing impacts of Maduro’s crisis spill into neighboring countries. In the last fiscal year the U.S. “has provided more than $140 million in humanitarian and development assistance to support affected countries’ emergency efforts and build their long-term capacity to host the more than three million people who have fled repression and chaos in Venezuela since 2014.”

The United States has pledge to stand with the Venezuelan people and has repeatedly called upon authorities there to immediately implement the critical economic and political reforms necessary to end the hyperinflation, supply shortages, and corruption which created the crisis in the once-prosperous nation.

The United States does not recognize the previous Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela. Therefore, Washington is not complying with the former president’s order to break diplomatic relations with the US. According to a US State Department announcement, Washington welcomes “interim President Guaido’s directive to all diplomatic missions in Venezuela that Venezuela intends to maintain diplomatic relations with all countries.

NORTH KOREA

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Not long ago, President Trump met directly with North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un to begin a dialogue on denuclearizing that country. The process is ongoing behind-the-scenes and continues publicly with the recent announcement that President Trump will participate in another meeting with the North Korean leader late in February. Secretary Pompeo, in response to questions about a new “top-secret” missile base in that country said that the US intelligence community is aware of what is taking place in North Korea.

The Secretary pointed out that “with respect to the negotiations, President Trump and I have both… from the very beginning, from the first time I went to North Korea as the CIA director, understand that this is going to be a process that is going to take some time. First step: stopping their testing of their missile program. Second step: stopping their nuclear tests. Those still continue. There’s been real progress made.”

CHINA

China is feeling the impact of American sanctions and experiencing a severe slowdown in its economy. In a recent interview with Laura Ingraham, Secretary Pompeo discussed US demands for fair and reciprocal trade. He pointed out that the United States wants our companies to be able to sell their goods into China without the risk that their intellectual property will be stolen or that they’ll be forced to deliver their technology to the Chinese Government.

The Secretary added that “President Trump has been… pretty clear…. We want a set of arrangements that allow American workers to have the same opportunity that Chinese workers have.” Secretary Pompeo said that progress is being made and he is optimistic USTR Ambassador Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and the rest of the trade team will continue to work toward an outcome consistent with what the President has been demanding for months.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.