Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III comments at News Conference With Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak

[T]heimperialistic policy of the Russian Federation requires from us and all the allies’ complex activities and complex deterrence and defense. We have welcomed additional U.S. troops in Poland that reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. There are also, in Poland, we have additional British soldiers this way. We give them support and we will cooperate with them as long as it is necessary.

Poland and the United States have developed a special bond in the defense of liberty, and soon after World War I, American volunteer aviators provided air cover for Polish forces fighting for their own country’s independence. More recently, Polish and American soldiers fought and died together in Iraq and in — in Afghanistan against common threats to our security, and today, our relationship could not be stronger.

I’d like to thank Poland for regularly hosting more than 4,000 enduring rotational U.S. military personnel. It’s the fourth-largest concentration of U.S. forces in Europe. And of course, in light of Russian force buildup near Ukraine, we appreciate Poland for hosting an additional 4,700 U.S. soldiers who are prepared to respond to a range of contingency, and they will work closely with our State Department and with Polish authorities, should there be any need to help American citizens leave Ukraine.

Under the 2020 Enhanced Defense Corporation Agreement signed by our two countries, Poland strongly contributes to these deployments by providing facilities and logistical resources, which we truly appreciate.

We’re also partners in developing Poland’s defense capabilities. Poland has chosen the F-35 fighter aircraft, and Poland air defense batteries and — excuse me — Patriot air defense batteries and high-mobility artillery rocket systems.

Today, I’m proud to announce another step in this growing partnership. In response to Poland’s formal request in July of 2021, Secretary Brink — Blinken and I have relayed our intent to Congress to offer Poland the opportunity to acquire 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks. The timeframe for delivery of these tanks is currently under discussion. This is the most modern version of the Abrams, and will provide Poland with a highly-advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of other NATO allies.

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We commend Poland for consistently meeting NATO spending and defense investment targets and together, we will continue to modernize our defense capabilities. This procurement by Poland will also help to ensure a more equitable sharing of responsibilities within the alliance for our common defense, and our joint exercises in Poland and the Baltic states will continue to demonstrate our readiness to defend our — to defend our eastern-most allies.

Europe is now facing challenges to international peace and stability. For one, Belarusian — or Belarusian President Lukashenko continues to cruelly promote the force migration of thousands of displaced persons from the Middle East to Poland and the rest of Europe — of — of the European Union. And Poland’s neighbor, Ukraine, is under the threat of another Russian invasion, which was the focus of our discussion this morning.

Any Russian attack or further incursion into Ukraine would night — not only ignite conflict, it would also violate the bedrock principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination. The deployment of thousands of Russian forces in Belarus, in addition to the thousands surrounding Ukraine to the east and south puts some of those forces within 200 miles of the Polish border. If Russia further invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others flowing across its border, trying to save themselves and their families from the scourge of war.

To be clear, as I said yesterday in Brussels, there is still time and space for diplomacy. United steps — the United States, in lockstep with our allies and partners, including Poland, has offered Mr. Putin a path away from crisis and towards greater security. Whatever path he chooses, the United States and our allies and our partners will be ready.

Poland knows firsthand the steep cost paid by victims of aggression from larger neighbors, and it has made — made valuable contributions to assist Ukraine in building up its defense capabilities. This includes joint training exercises and hosting a trilateral brigade composed of Polish, Ukrainian and Lithuanian soldiers, as well as Poland’s recent offer of ammunition and portable air defense weapons to Ukraine.

The United States also continues to move material assistance to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. Fortunately, neither Poland or the United States are alone in dealing with this challenge. As you’ve heard over the last few days during the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels, the entire alliance stands with Ukraine in supporting its sovereignty, its territorial integrity and its right to choose its own path in its relations with its neighbors and the rest of the world. You know, it’s ironic that what Mr. Putin did not want to see happen was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that’s exactly what he will see going forward.

Poland and the United States, in solidarity with our allies, will continue to work together to overcome any challenge to European peace and stability and any future challenges to come.

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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