Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III comments at News Conference With Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak

[T]heimperialistic policy of the Russian Federation requires from us and all the allies’ complex activities and complex deterrence and defense. We have welcomed additional U.S. troops in Poland that reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. There are also, in Poland, we have additional British soldiers this way. We give them support and we will cooperate with them as long as it is necessary.

Poland and the United States have developed a special bond in the defense of liberty, and soon after World War I, American volunteer aviators provided air cover for Polish forces fighting for their own country’s independence. More recently, Polish and American soldiers fought and died together in Iraq and in — in Afghanistan against common threats to our security, and today, our relationship could not be stronger.

I’d like to thank Poland for regularly hosting more than 4,000 enduring rotational U.S. military personnel. It’s the fourth-largest concentration of U.S. forces in Europe. And of course, in light of Russian force buildup near Ukraine, we appreciate Poland for hosting an additional 4,700 U.S. soldiers who are prepared to respond to a range of contingency, and they will work closely with our State Department and with Polish authorities, should there be any need to help American citizens leave Ukraine.

Under the 2020 Enhanced Defense Corporation Agreement signed by our two countries, Poland strongly contributes to these deployments by providing facilities and logistical resources, which we truly appreciate.

We’re also partners in developing Poland’s defense capabilities. Poland has chosen the F-35 fighter aircraft, and Poland air defense batteries and — excuse me — Patriot air defense batteries and high-mobility artillery rocket systems.

Today, I’m proud to announce another step in this growing partnership. In response to Poland’s formal request in July of 2021, Secretary Brink — Blinken and I have relayed our intent to Congress to offer Poland the opportunity to acquire 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks. The timeframe for delivery of these tanks is currently under discussion. This is the most modern version of the Abrams, and will provide Poland with a highly-advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of other NATO allies.

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We commend Poland for consistently meeting NATO spending and defense investment targets and together, we will continue to modernize our defense capabilities. This procurement by Poland will also help to ensure a more equitable sharing of responsibilities within the alliance for our common defense, and our joint exercises in Poland and the Baltic states will continue to demonstrate our readiness to defend our — to defend our eastern-most allies.

Europe is now facing challenges to international peace and stability. For one, Belarusian — or Belarusian President Lukashenko continues to cruelly promote the force migration of thousands of displaced persons from the Middle East to Poland and the rest of Europe — of — of the European Union. And Poland’s neighbor, Ukraine, is under the threat of another Russian invasion, which was the focus of our discussion this morning.

Any Russian attack or further incursion into Ukraine would night — not only ignite conflict, it would also violate the bedrock principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination. The deployment of thousands of Russian forces in Belarus, in addition to the thousands surrounding Ukraine to the east and south puts some of those forces within 200 miles of the Polish border. If Russia further invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others flowing across its border, trying to save themselves and their families from the scourge of war.

To be clear, as I said yesterday in Brussels, there is still time and space for diplomacy. United steps — the United States, in lockstep with our allies and partners, including Poland, has offered Mr. Putin a path away from crisis and towards greater security. Whatever path he chooses, the United States and our allies and our partners will be ready.

Poland knows firsthand the steep cost paid by victims of aggression from larger neighbors, and it has made — made valuable contributions to assist Ukraine in building up its defense capabilities. This includes joint training exercises and hosting a trilateral brigade composed of Polish, Ukrainian and Lithuanian soldiers, as well as Poland’s recent offer of ammunition and portable air defense weapons to Ukraine.

The United States also continues to move material assistance to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. Fortunately, neither Poland or the United States are alone in dealing with this challenge. As you’ve heard over the last few days during the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels, the entire alliance stands with Ukraine in supporting its sovereignty, its territorial integrity and its right to choose its own path in its relations with its neighbors and the rest of the world. You know, it’s ironic that what Mr. Putin did not want to see happen was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that’s exactly what he will see going forward.

Poland and the United States, in solidarity with our allies, will continue to work together to overcome any challenge to European peace and stability and any future challenges to come.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.