Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Despite the extensive media coverage of Putin’s every statement, there are events occurring in the world outside of the potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Some of those are taking place in India where there are mounting questions over the Modi government’s suspected use of spyware on its own citizenry and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. In 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed off on the purchase of Pegasus spyware designed by the Israeli cyber-arms firm, NCO Group. Since that time there have been numerous allegations of the Indian government using the Pegasus spyware to read text messages, track calls, collect passwords, track locations, and listen in to conversations using the target’s own cell phone microphone and camera, as well as harvesting the information from downloaded apps.

This week there are reports according to Michael Kugelman, writing in Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, that Indian media have revealed that “two cybersecurity experts told the [Indian Supreme Court appointed] committee there are “strong indicators” that the allegations are true. Although denied by the government, both supporters and their opponents see this as hurting India. The former argue that the accusations mark the latest attempt to malign India. Opponents say it is an example of the government cracking down on civil liberties.

Elsewhere in India, the country remains embroiled in an ongoing border conflict in the Ladakh region of the Himalayan Mountains near China. On Wednesday of this week the two nuclear-armed countries held their 14^th round of discussions since June 2020. Although Indian officials characterized the talks as “constructive” there was no movement on either side. At immediate issue is the Hot Springs area where troops are dug in for the winter months. Overall, there are several thousand troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which extends for nearly 2,200 miles and is not demarcated. The 24-month long Ladakh geopolitical crisis reflects domestic concerns in both nation-states with neither government willing to accept a compromise solution. During this crisis reports came out accusing Chinese soldiers of beating their Indian counterparts with nail-studded rods and with some soldiers thrown to their death in freezing river water. Others Indian soldiers died from asphyxiation and hyperthermia. Despite the crisis last year bilateral trade with China topped $100 billion. But all is not well in the region.

Both countries have begun building permanent infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border indicating that this dispute is not the typical short border clash between the two but has the potential for a more serious conflict. The new garrison and airstrips suggest that the conflict may escalate into a more extensive kinetic warfare in the future. A recent South China Morning Post article pointed out that China recently deployed a long-range rocket launcher near the border. Kyle Gardner, an Sino-Indian border expert, warns that this latest development points to a “sustained, broader militarization of the LAC” and highlights the heightened risks of a small-scale conflict. At question is whether China and India’s long-standing agreement on the non-use of firearms may soon be discarded.

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India has been highly critical of China’s handling of the Covid pandemic while China views India’s security ties and involvement with the US in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as threatening to the communist giant. On Friday President Biden announced its Indo-Pacific strategy will remain much the same as in previous administrations. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, points out that “The US will continue to muddle along in the region. This plan lacks specificity, lacks detail, and there are major gaps in terms of strengthening America’s geoeconomic position in Asia.” While the world watches and waits to see what aggressive moves Putin makes toward the Ukraine, other large and small states continue to face their own challenges. Jacqueline Feldscher, writing in Defense One, says that “In its first year, the Biden administration consistently talked about the importance of diplomacy and partnerships, and its Indo-Pacific strategy is no different. The strategy mentions the need to strengthen the Quad, as well as increase cooperation with Japan and South Korea, boost collaboration with India, and expand the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” So far, the Biden Administration has not made much progress in this area, leaving India and other states in the region to question whether, like Ukraine, they can bet on counting on the United States in a crisis.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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