Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

US Special Envoy Malley is currently leading an interagency delegation to the eighth round of talks in Vienna. According to Ned Price, US State Department spokesman, it is too early “to say how substantive that progress may have been. At a minimum, any progress, we believe, is falling short of Iran’s accelerating nuclear steps and is far too slow.” In contrast to Washington’s appraisal, both Iran and Russia have stated in positive terms that the talks are going at the right speed. Iran has yet to return to talks with a more constructive approach for this week’s talks although Tehran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian claimed Iran showed “good faith” in renegotiating the 2015 nuclear agreement. In response to a reporter’s question about why the Biden Administration continues to state it is “too soon” to expect progress, Price said that President Biden “will not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.” He did not provide any details about how the Administration planned to accomplish the goal other than for Iran to comply before lifting sanctions.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

The Biden administration says its diplomatic approach on Ukraine has been “clear and consistent” between two tracks: deterrence and diplomacy. “We are unified as a NATO Alliance on the consequences Russia would face if it moves on Ukraine, but we’re also unified in our willingness to engage in principled diplomacy with Russia,” according to a State Department official. The US will begin talk with Russia in the Strategic Stability Dialogue on January 10^th followed by Russia and NATO discussions under a Russia-NATO – NATO-Russia Council meeting on the 12th and an OSCE meeting a day later.

SAUDI ARABIA

There have been more than 375 cross-border attacks 2021 by the Houthi that have endangered Saudi Arabians and the 70,000 U.S. citizens residing there. The Secretary of Defense said in December that with American support Saudi Arabia has been able to knock down 90 percent of those attacks. The US goal, according to Price, “is to see to it that that number rises to 100 percent.” He added that “… we will continue to hold the Houthis accountable for their reprehensible actions… [and] have taken an approach that is targeting those Houthi leaders who are responsible not only for these attacks but also the other malign activities for which the Houthis are responsible.” The Biden Administration condemned the recent escalation of Houthi attacks along the Saudi border. On Christmas Day an official from the Saudi-led coalition said the border town of Jizan was attacked, resulting in the death of two and injury to seven residents.

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NORTH KOREA

The Biden Administration has been accused of “strategic patience” when it comes to dealing with North Korea. In response a State Department official said the Administration “undertook a policy review of our approach to the DPRK.” According to the official, “We’ve made clear in recent months that we harbor no hostile intent toward the DPRK.” The current Administration has reached out to South Korean officials, Japan, and others to ask how to engage North Korea in what an official called a “calibrated, practical approach.”

AFGHANISTAN

Secretary of State Tony Blinken in a press conference last week said: “The last time I was in this briefing room, I faced some appropriate questions about our ability to continue to facilitate the departure of American citizens and others [in Afghanistan] to whom we have a special commitment.” He suggested that since he last spoke to reporters the US has “made good” on its pledge to help any US citizens leave Afghanistan. He put the number receiving assistance since September 1 at close to 500 people. The State Department reports that US taxpayers will be paying to resettle 95,00 people in the US through at least September 2022. Since the end of August, the US has processed over 77,000 Afghans in various locations. Unlike those crossing the border illegally and being dispersed throughout the US, Afghan refugees must be vaccinated before leaving the port of entry.

Photo: Pixabay

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.