Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

AFGHANISTAN

Chaos rules despite what President Biden said in his Friday speech. In it he made promises to try to rescue Americans still in Afghanistan, but also said “I cannot promise what the outcome will be.” Biden said not that he has, but that he “will” authorize every resource to help where needed to evacuate Americans. The story on the ground in country is very different from what the Administration in Washington is reporting to the American people. A Washington Post reporter in Afghanistan, Susannah George, confirmed that Taliban fighters were beating men, women, and children attempting to flee the country. Some, according to George, were struck with rifle butts. Others were called traitors and harassed physically. Some were killed. She wrote in a Washington Post article Friday that “…there was no system to get people safely inside the airport.” There also are reports of Afghan children being crushed by the rush of people at the airport. According to The Hill, “Adding to the mayhem is mixed messaging from the State Department, which is urging Americans and those with travel documents to head to the Hamid Karzai International Airport ‘as soon as possible’ even though the U.S. Embassy alerted people that it could not guarantee safe passage.” On Friday the US military had to temporarily stop evacuations after the overflow of evacuees passed the capacity of the air base in Qatar to accept them. Apparently, the Biden Administration did not plan this well.

The situation on the ground is extremely dangerous in Afghanistan. According to Reuters and other news organizations this week, the Taliban have seized dozens of aircraft and thousands of weapons, as well as pieces of US provided high-tech equipment including night -vision goggles, unmanned aerial vehicles, M-16 rifles, US Humvees, Super Tucano attack aircraft, and Black Hawk combat helicopters. One report out of Washington stated that the Taliban was now better equipped than Great Britain’s military.

RUSSIA

The State Department announced this week it is imposing new sanctions on the Russia Federation as punishment for its role in the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny, the opposition leader who was sickened by a “Novichok” nerve agent in the August 2020. New sanctions imposed today under the CBW Act include restrictions on the permanent imports of certain Russian firearms and new and pending permit applications for the permanent importation of firearms and ammunition manufactured or located in Russia will be subject to a policy of denial. The Department also said there will be additional Department of Commerce export restrictions on nuclear and missile-related goods and technology pursuant to the Export Control Reform Act of 2018.

NATO

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In a joint statement by the NATO foreign ministers on Afghanistan, they expressed deep concerns about reports of serious human rights violations and abuses across Afghanistan. “Our immediate task,” it stated, “is now to meet our commitments to continue the safe evacuation of our citizens, partner country nationals, and at-risk Afghans, in particular those who have assisted our efforts… As long as evacuation operations continue, we will maintain our close operational coordination through Allied military means at Hamid Karzai International Airport.”

TAIWAN

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is refuting Chinese government claims this week that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan indicates the United States is an unreliable partner and that it marks weakened support for Taiwan. “When it comes to Taiwan, it is a fundamentally different question, in a different context,” noted Sullivan on Tuesday.

CUBAThe United States has imposed additional sanctions on Cuban military and security leaders in response to the Cuban regime’s continued violent suppression of freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly in the days and weeks following the protests on and after July 11, according to a State Department announcement issued August 19.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.