Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

HONG KONG

In response to Beijing imposing harsh controls over Hong Kong and repressing more freedoms previously guaranteed, the US responded Thursday by announcing Deferred Enforced Departure for Hong Kong residents currently in the United States. It will provide Hong Kongers who are concerned about returning to Hong Kong with temporary safe haven in the United States for a period of up to 18 months.

The State Department Spokesperson, Ned Price, said the “United States stands in solidarity with the people in Hong Kong in the face of cruel repression by the PRC.” The US joins other nations offering similar options to those who fear returning to Hong Kong, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

“It is clear when you look at what is happening that PRC authorities seek to use the tools that they have given themselves… the national security law and other legislation – to make arbitrary arrests, politically motivated prosecutions of opposition candidates and politicians, activists, and peaceful protestors with the goal it seems – or certainly the end result – of creating an atmosphere of fear, of self-censorship, of repression among the general populace,” said Price.

IRAN

Iran’s new leader, President Raisi, announced that his country will not back down from continuing to develop its nuclear program. Despite Raisi’s statements to the contrary, Price said the US is willing to wait on doing anything to see what direction the Iranian government takes going forward. When questioned about how long Washington is willing to wait, Price would not provide a timeframe, saying “we’re not going to put a timeline on it, but for us, this is an urgent priority, knowing the issues that are at play, and we hope the other – we hope the Iranians treat it with the same degree of urgency.

Price told reporters Thursday that Iran “… has distanced itself from its nuclear limitations since 2018, the breakout time, according to published reports, is back down to a handful of months. For us, that is not a proposition that can last indefinitely, and it is also not a proposition that can last indefinitely when, as these nuclear constraints aren’t applied, Iran’s advancements continue day by day.”

GUATEMALA

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The US views the suspension last week of Guatemala’s special prosecutor for corruption as a move in the wrong direction. “Attorney General Consuela Porras’ sudden appointment of Rafael Curruchiche to lead FECI does not add confidence in the body’s ability to independently investigate and prosecute corruption cases. Our position remains that it is essential for FECI – that it is essential FECI is able to function, and its prosecutors and analysts are empowered to continue to investigate cases to maintain the fight against corruption in Guatemala,” according to Price.

ETHIOPIA

The State Department announced a “substantial increase” in the amount of aid it provides to Ethiopia. “We have been very clear that we are supporting, and we are standing with the people of Ethiopia… we are doing all that we can to support the people of Tigray who have suffered tremendously from this conflict. We’re doing that in a number of ways: through the provision of aid, our calls for expanded humanitarian access – but on a political and diplomatic level – to bring the parties together, the Ethiopian Government and the TPLF [Tigray People’s Liberation Front], to arrive at a negotiated ceasefire, just as we call an all of the armed actors in this conflict to halt the violence, to cease some of these atrocious attacks that, in some cases, reportedly have resulted in very grim civilian deaths. We are working urgently on this.”

UKRAINE

Secretary Antony J. Blinken met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington this week to discuss Russian escalations along the Ukrainian- Russian border and in the occupied territories of Ukraine over the last few months. Prior to their meeting Blinken said that the US is “…very much committed to Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty, its territorial integrity. We’ll talk about challenges to each of those and the work that we’re doing together to stand for a strong Ukraine that can defend itself against external aggression but also pursue the vitally important process of reform to strengthen even more its democracy and its economy.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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