Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

RUSSIA

The US placed sanctions on several Russian entities connected to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. A senior State Department official said that “This package is designed to address the root causes of those risks – Russia’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon and the vulnerability of countries like Ukraine, which are dependent on Russian gas and transit fees, to Russian malign activities.” The US and Germany publicly stated neither country will tolerate the risk an operational Nord Stream 2 would pose to European energy security, Ukraine, and frontline NATO and EU countries. The official said that the US goal is to prevent Ukraine from losing any transit revenues for as long as possible to enable to create a sustainable and secure energy future. Earlier in the week when asked about the pipeline, the State Department Spokesperson gave a vague answer to which the reporter said: “That was a very, very long and defensive answer for a question that could have been answered with “We don’t have anything to announce for you today.” It appears the media is losing patience with the Biden Administration.

AFGHANISTAN

The US will temporarily relocate 750 Afghan individuals and their families who feel threatened in Afghanistan due to their assistance to US forces to Fort Lee, Virginia to enable them to complete their Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) processing outside of Afghanistan, according to Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Brian McKeon. The move comes after the Biden Administration received extensive criticism for ignoring the plight of those who risked their lives to help the US. There are over 20,000 in the initial stages of the application process for the SIV program. Many of the families are being sent to third countries.

ISRAEL

The United States will be moving forward with the process to reopen its consulate in Jerusalem and, according to the State Department Spokesman New Price, will do so as “part of our effort to re-establish that partnership with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority precisely because it allows us to engage with them, it allows us to execute our assistance programs, it allows us to execute our public diplomacy mission, and to conduct the sort of diplomatic reporting that we need.”

CUBA

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The US will form a “remittances working group” to identify the most effective ways to get directly into the hands of the Cuban people, according to Price. Beyond that, he said, “we are also reviewing our plans to augment staffing at our embassy in Havana to facilitate the consular activities, the engagement with civil society, and to make sure we have an appropriate security posture as well.” Previously, President Biden said the US would not intervene in stopping remittances to Cuba. Price said “what is new is the announcement that we are going to study it very carefully, very closely to determine what and how we might be able to move forward in a way that supports the Cuban people without adding to the coffers of the regime.”

BANGLADESH

When a reporter specifically asked the State Department Spokesperson if the Biden administration will be critical of the current authoritarian prime minister in Bangladesh, Price responded: “When it comes to Bangladesh, we work closely with Bangladesh to address common challenges. Those include climate change.” He then added, “Yes.”

IRAQ

The US is in discussions this week regarding the removal of US troops from Iraq. Price said that “there is a strategic dialogue tomorrow [Thursday] that the Secretary will take part in… When it comes to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, this is all under the rubric of our joint and collective efforts to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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