Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

RUSSIA

The US placed sanctions on several Russian entities connected to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. A senior State Department official said that “This package is designed to address the root causes of those risks – Russia’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon and the vulnerability of countries like Ukraine, which are dependent on Russian gas and transit fees, to Russian malign activities.” The US and Germany publicly stated neither country will tolerate the risk an operational Nord Stream 2 would pose to European energy security, Ukraine, and frontline NATO and EU countries. The official said that the US goal is to prevent Ukraine from losing any transit revenues for as long as possible to enable to create a sustainable and secure energy future. Earlier in the week when asked about the pipeline, the State Department Spokesperson gave a vague answer to which the reporter said: “That was a very, very long and defensive answer for a question that could have been answered with “We don’t have anything to announce for you today.” It appears the media is losing patience with the Biden Administration.

AFGHANISTAN

The US will temporarily relocate 750 Afghan individuals and their families who feel threatened in Afghanistan due to their assistance to US forces to Fort Lee, Virginia to enable them to complete their Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) processing outside of Afghanistan, according to Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Brian McKeon. The move comes after the Biden Administration received extensive criticism for ignoring the plight of those who risked their lives to help the US. There are over 20,000 in the initial stages of the application process for the SIV program. Many of the families are being sent to third countries.

ISRAEL

The United States will be moving forward with the process to reopen its consulate in Jerusalem and, according to the State Department Spokesman New Price, will do so as “part of our effort to re-establish that partnership with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority precisely because it allows us to engage with them, it allows us to execute our assistance programs, it allows us to execute our public diplomacy mission, and to conduct the sort of diplomatic reporting that we need.”

CUBA

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The US will form a “remittances working group” to identify the most effective ways to get directly into the hands of the Cuban people, according to Price. Beyond that, he said, “we are also reviewing our plans to augment staffing at our embassy in Havana to facilitate the consular activities, the engagement with civil society, and to make sure we have an appropriate security posture as well.” Previously, President Biden said the US would not intervene in stopping remittances to Cuba. Price said “what is new is the announcement that we are going to study it very carefully, very closely to determine what and how we might be able to move forward in a way that supports the Cuban people without adding to the coffers of the regime.”

BANGLADESH

When a reporter specifically asked the State Department Spokesperson if the Biden administration will be critical of the current authoritarian prime minister in Bangladesh, Price responded: “When it comes to Bangladesh, we work closely with Bangladesh to address common challenges. Those include climate change.” He then added, “Yes.”

IRAQ

The US is in discussions this week regarding the removal of US troops from Iraq. Price said that “there is a strategic dialogue tomorrow [Thursday] that the Secretary will take part in… When it comes to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, this is all under the rubric of our joint and collective efforts to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.