Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

US PASSPORTS

As of this week, a State Department press official Jalina Porter announced, American citizens will be able to choose if they feel are a man or woman and self-designate their gender on their passport. A State Department official said this “announcement is another example of our leadership.” Secretary of State Tony Blinken confirmed the US “will no longer require medical certification if an applicant’s self-selected gender does not match the gender on their other citizenship or identity documents.”

AFGHANISTAN

In response to a question by a reporter this week, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that the US is not diminishing its relationship, or abandoning Afghanistan, because Washington will have a diplomatic relationship with the country. “Obviously, that relationship will look different with the military withdrawal underway,” he added. Last month, The Diplomat, reported that “The fear of potential aggravation of the political situation and worsening of security in Afghanistan, as well as the expansion of instability, is a matter of great regional concern. The power struggle between interest groups and political factions inside the Afghan government, as well the Taliban’s growing power, has the definite potential to change the U.S.-secured power equilibrium in Afghanistan.” At this point no one is certain what will occur as external forces seek to fill the power vacuum when US forces are fully withdrawn by September 11. It may lead to further instability in the region. Currently it is estimated that over 70,000 Afghan citizens who aided the US during the war, along with their families, may be eligible to come to the US due to ongoing security concerns for their safety. The State Department said about 9,000 are in the initial stage of the process pending applicant action.

CHINA

July 1 marked the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he said that anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall….” When asked if the US had any pushback, Price said: “… we’re aware that the Chinese Communist Party commemorated its 100th anniversary today. We’re aware of President Xi’s remarks. We’ve taken note on them, but we’re not going to comment on the specifics. I think this administration, over the course of several months, has been very clear about our impressions of the CCP in general, but I don’t have a specific response for you on President Xi’s remarks today. To date, the Biden Administration appears to lack follow through on actions.

In response to reports that China is building over 100 new missile silos, Price said: “It reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks.” Price added: “We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races, potential – potentially destabilizing tensions. Given that earlier this year China refused senior US military officials’ requests to meet, this statement most likely will not change the level of danger posed by the silos or force China into talks.

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NORTH KOREA

Considering the challenging global issues faced by the United States and western democracies, it was interesting that in a shortened press briefing the State Department Spokesman took time to answer questions about the impact of North Korean President Kim Jong-un’s diet.

HONG KONG

The Deputy Assistant of State for East Asian Affairs, Jonathan Fritz, when asked about the situation in Hong Kong said that: “We hope Beijing will realize the truth: Hong Kongers aren’t the problem….” He pointed out that if Beijing doesn’t realize this the residents of Hong Kong will be “forced to flee.” Fritz added that he was “inspired to see the resilience of Hong Kongers in their pursuit of what the PRC promised them.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.