Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

NORTHERN TRIANGLE

The United States is committing $4 billion to the countries in the Northern Triangle area of Latin America to combat corruption, migration issues, democracy and human rights. Accord to Julie Chung, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, the State Department is working out the details of the president’s proposed program.

NICARAGUA

“The United States has been very concerned about the situation in Nicaragua, the oppression of people, of freedom of press, of civil society and human rights defenders,” according to Acting Assistant Secretary Chung. She noted that Costa Rica has been a strong partner within the OAS framework and has called for democracy and human rights in Nicaragua. She added that in Washington there are big concerns about elections being planned for later this year and whether the right conditions are there for those free and fair elections.

HONG KONG

The Chinese government continues to undermine the democratic institutions of Hong Kong, denying Hong Kong residents the rights that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) itself has guaranteed, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In a statement release by the Department this week, the Secretary said that “The Hong Kong Legislative Council (LegCo) passage on May 27 of new measures that alter the composition of the LegCo and Election Commission severely constrains people in Hong Kong from meaningfully participating in their own governance and having their voices heard.”

Decreasing Hong Kong residents’ electoral representation, according to Blinken, will not foster long-term political and social stability for Hong Kong.  The legislation defies the Basic Law’s clear acknowledgment that the ultimate objective is the election of all members of the LegCo by universal suffrage.  He called on China and the Hong Kong authorities to allow the voices of all Hong Kongers to be heard.

EGYPT

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Secretary Blinken met in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to convey President Biden’s appreciation to President Sisi for Egypt’s critical mediation efforts in support of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and other groups in Gaza and for Egypt’s help in evacuating American citizens to safety. Blinken reaffirmed the strong strategic partnership between the United States and Egypt, and President Biden’s commitment to the relationship and America’s commitment to Egypt’s water security and resolution of the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The Nile River accounts for 97% of Egypt’s supply of freshwater.

GAZA

In a press briefing this week in the Middle East, Blinken said that “The most urgent thing is humanitarian assistance for the people in Gaza, and particularly water, sanitation, electricity.” Beyond that he suggested reconstruction and rebuilding as additional priorities. Blinken said he wants to see reduced tensions and the building of more trust. On Tuesday, Washington announced it is in the process of providing more than $360 million of assistance to the Palestinian people. It includes nearly $40 million in new assistance that is directed primarily to support the humanitarian efforts in the West Bank and Gaza. The new assistance includes nearly $33 million for UNRWA in support of the West Bank and Gaza operations, an additional five and a half million for humanitarian partners.

ISRAEL

When asked in a television interview this week when President Biden planned to visit Israel, Secretary Blinken said: “I don’t have the time, I don’t have the date….” He added that anti-Semitic acts of violence are on the rise in the United States and that this is not a good sign.

BELARUSThe forced diversion of a flight between two EU member states and the subsequent removal and arrest of journalist Raman Pratasevich in Minsk drew sharp condemnation from the State Department this week. “We demand his immediate release. This shocking act perpetrated by the Lukashenka regime endangered the lives of more than 120 passengers, including U.S. citizens,” said Secretary Blinken. Initial reports suggested the involvement of the Belarusian security services and the use of Belarusian military aircraft to escort the plane are deeply concerning and require full investigation. Given indications the forced landing was based on false pretenses, the US is calling for the earliest possible meeting of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization to review the events.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department..

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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