Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

ISRAEL

In a recent interview Secretary Blinken said that “President Biden believes, and that is that the best and ultimately only way forward, really, is through a two states [solution]… first, Israel as a Jewish and democratic state is going to have truly lasting security through two states, and the Palestinians would get the state that they’re entitled to. That also means that any steps that anyone takes – unilateral steps that anyone takes – that make the prospect of two states even more challenging than it already is, we oppose, and we’ve also been very clear about that.”

ARCTIC COUNCIL

Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended the 12th Arctic Council Ministerial meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, with foreign ministers from all eight Arctic States. All signed onto the 2021 joint declaration reaffirming the Council’s commitment to maintain peace, stability, and constructive cooperation in the Arctic region, emphasizing Arctic States’ unique position to promote responsible governance in the region, and asserting the importance of immediately addressing the climate crisis in the Arctic. Recently, the region has become a focus of potential great power competition as the Northern Passageway presents the potential of creating a shorter maritime passage to Europe from Asia. Advanced technologies now available also make it possible to excavate the region’s vast undersea mineral and energy resources. While there Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed Russia’s Arctic Council Chairmanship and the importance of cooperation given the two countries shared stake in the region.

RUSSIA

Secretary Blinken while attending the Arctic Council meetings said that the United States “seeks a predictable, stable relationship with Russia.” According to Blinken, it is good for the US and the Russian people. He added that “It’s also no secret that we have our differences. And when it comes to those differences, as President Biden has also shared with President Putin, if Russia acts aggressively against us, our partners, our allies, we’ll respond. And President Biden has demonstrated that in both word and deed – not for purposes of escalation, not to seek conflict, but to defend our interests.”

Blinken also acknowledged that there are many areas where Washington and Msoscow’s interests intersect and overlap. “Whether it is dealing with COVID-19 and the pandemic, combatting climate change, dealing with the nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, Afghanistan, there are many areas of intersecting interests,” he said.

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BURMA

On Tuesday, May 18th, in Geneva, the United States announced nearly $155 million in new humanitarian aid for Rohingya refugees and affected host communities in Bangladesh at the launch of the 2021 Joint Response Plan for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis. The Deputy Spokesman for the State Department, Jalina Porter, said that of the $155 million more than $138 million is for programs inside Bangladesh. That brings the United States’ total assistance for the crisis response since August 2017 to more than $1.3 billion.

“This funding will sustain the efforts of our partners to provide life-saving assistance to affected communities on both sides of the Burma-Bangladesh border, including the nearly 900,000 Rohingya refugees who have taken refuge in Bangladesh – some 740 million of whom arrived since 2017, when they were forced to flee ethnic cleansing and other horrific atrocities and abuses in Burma’s Rakhine State, according to Porter. The funding also is expected to provide assistance to more than 470,000 Bangladeshi host community members and to others affected by the ongoing violence in Burma.

TURKEY

Ned Price, State Department Spokesman, said the United States “strongly condemns President Erdogan’s recent anti-Semitic comments regarding the Jewish people and finds them reprehensible.” He added that Washington is urging “President Erdogan and other Turkish leaders to refrain from incendiary remarks, which could incite further violence. We call on Turkey to join the United States in working to end the conflict.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.