Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SYRIA

For the first time ever, against any country, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Conference of the State Parties this week in the Hague, with the United States and 45 co-sponsors, succeeded in passing a historic decision that condemns the Syrian regime, led by President Assad for its continued use and possession of chemical weapons, in violation of its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The decision, which was adopted with 87 countries voting in favor of it and only 15 against, condemns Syria’s use of chemical weapons and suspends certain of Syria’s rights and privileges Syria holds under the Convention – most notably its right to vote – until the OPCW director-general reports that Syria has completed certain measures. A State Department spokesman said that Syria must resolve all outstanding issues regarding the initial declaration of its chemical weapons stockpile and program. According to the US, the Assad regime has used chemical weapons at least 50 times since acceding to the CWC in 2013.

UKRAINE

“You know our commitment to Ukraine, our partnership with Ukraine, it’s deep. It is important to us. It’s enduring,” according to State Department spokesman New Price. He said that this was the message that Secretary Blinken conveyed to his Ukrainian counterpart last week when he met with Foreign Minister Kuleba in Brussels. The US has committed more than $2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.

RUSSIA

The State Department admitted it is aware that Russia has announced its intention to block foreign naval ships and state vessels in parts of the Black Sea, particularly near the Kerch Strait, through October as part of what it is claiming is a “military exercise.” The State Department spokesman said that Washington is “cognizant that Russia has a history of aggressive actions against Ukrainian vessels and impeding access to Ukraine’s ports in the Sea of Azov, impacting Ukraine’s international commerce.” This is the latest example of an ongoing campaign to undermine and to destabilize Ukraine, he added.

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The US also recently called on Russia to “cease its harassment of vessels in the region and to reverse its buildup of forces along Ukraine’s borders.” A State Department official said that Washington is “deeply concerned by Russia’s ongoing aggressive actions and rhetoric against Ukraine… these actions include credible reports of Russian troop buildup in occupied Crimea and around Ukraine’s borders. And importantly, we are now seeing a presence of Russian troops at levels not seen since Russia’s invasion in 2014, as well as continued attacks and other provocative actions by Russian-led forces at the line of control.”

AFGHANISTAN

Upon his return from meeting with Afghan President Ghani, Secretary of State Blinken responded to criticisms from the American generals who commanded troops in Afghanistan, including former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and David Petraeus, who went on to become CIA director. The commanders are saying that the withdrawal of troops will leave America more vulnerable to terrorist threats, with General Joe Dunford, a a retired United States Marine Corps four-star general, who served as the 19th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying it would also have a catastrophic effect in Afghanistan itself. Secretary Blinken responded that “We went to Afghanistan 20 years ago, and we went because we were attacked on 9/11, and we went to take on those who had attacked us on 9/11 and to make sure that Afghanistan would not again become a haven for terrorism directed at the United States or any of our allies and partners. And we achieved the objectives that we set out to achieve.” He added that the United States now is invested in the “peace process for Afghanistan” that the Administration hopes will bring about a political settlement.

NORWAY

At a time when Moscow is amassing over 40,000 troops on its border with the Ukraine, the US is looking northward to shore up its commitments to the Kingdom of Norway. Washington recently concluded a Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA), which will allow the two countries to deepen bilateral security cooperation, strengthen NATO operations, and increase Transatlantic security. The SDCA builds on the 1951 NATO Status of Forces Agreement to facilitate further development of opportunities for US forces to train and exercise in Norway.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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