Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Europe to participate in discussions at NATO headquarters in Brussels. In a press conference held there he was asked about American interests and values that countries share as participants in the rules-based international order. The Secretary responded that “the challenge is to make sure that we uphold that order. And so when any country, whether it’s China or anyone else, takes actions that undermine it when they’re not playing by the rules, we have an obligation to stand up and say you need to.” Blinken pointed out that the United States accounts for about 25% of the world’s GDP and that when the country is working with its allies and partners is quickly adds to 40%-60% of world GDP. He said that percentage is “a little bit harder for Beijing to ignore.”

RUSSIA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Beijing in what appeared to be a united stance against the EU and US position on Russian troops in the East and in the Baltic countries. Secretary Blinken said those regions were discussed at the NATO meetings and of great concern to Washington given some of Russia’s recent aggressive actions. The Secretary added that while Russia’s new weapon systems under development also are a concern to America’s allies and partners, collectively they recognize that there “may be areas where, out of mutual interest, we can still work together… the United States extended with Russia the New START agreement for five years. There are other areas in this matter of strategic stability – arms control – where we may find ways to work together, but that is not going to stop us from standing up strongly in a united way with our allies and partners when Russia commits aggressive acts.”

NATO

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Secretary Blinken spoke to NATO Members in Brussels Belgium this week and recommitted America to its alliances and to the shared values that sustain them. Second, he said, the United States must modernize its alliances. “That begins with improving our military capabilities and readiness, to ensure that we maintain a strong and credible military deterrent… we must ensure that our strategic nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective, particularly in light of Russia’s modernization.” Blinken also said that the US will take steps to reduce further the role of US nuclear weapons. It appears the US will now rely more on international institutions. Blinken said the US must confront its own shortcomings and not pretend they don’t exist.

Blinken also pointed out the the United States must expand its ability to address transnational threats – especially climate change and pandemics like COVID-19. He said: “These challenges are so vast – and the measures needed to address them so far-reaching – that tackling them must be integrated into virtually everything we do and coordinated across a wide array of partners.” The third challenge he mentioned was that the US must weave together broader coalitions of allies and partners to address threats in the economic, technological, and informational realms. He called for a deepening of NATO-EU cooperation and greater collaboration on issues including cybersecurity, energy security, health security, and safeguarding critical infrastructure.

GERMANY

Although Germany is among the US’s closest allies, Secretary Blinken said Washington has “a real disagreement on Nord Stream 2 – that’s not a secret to anyone.” He added that the US is not going to let that stand in the way of the work on issues that are of direct concern to the citizens of the US and Germany. The pipeline exposes the Ukraine and Central Europe to Russian manipulation and coercion, and goes against Europe’s own stated energy security goals. Blinken said the US will continue to monitor activity to complete or certify the pipeline, and if that activity takes place, Washington will make a determination on the applicability of sanctions.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.