Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Europe to participate in discussions at NATO headquarters in Brussels. In a press conference held there he was asked about American interests and values that countries share as participants in the rules-based international order. The Secretary responded that “the challenge is to make sure that we uphold that order. And so when any country, whether it’s China or anyone else, takes actions that undermine it when they’re not playing by the rules, we have an obligation to stand up and say you need to.” Blinken pointed out that the United States accounts for about 25% of the world’s GDP and that when the country is working with its allies and partners is quickly adds to 40%-60% of world GDP. He said that percentage is “a little bit harder for Beijing to ignore.”

RUSSIA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Beijing in what appeared to be a united stance against the EU and US position on Russian troops in the East and in the Baltic countries. Secretary Blinken said those regions were discussed at the NATO meetings and of great concern to Washington given some of Russia’s recent aggressive actions. The Secretary added that while Russia’s new weapon systems under development also are a concern to America’s allies and partners, collectively they recognize that there “may be areas where, out of mutual interest, we can still work together… the United States extended with Russia the New START agreement for five years. There are other areas in this matter of strategic stability – arms control – where we may find ways to work together, but that is not going to stop us from standing up strongly in a united way with our allies and partners when Russia commits aggressive acts.”

NATO

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Secretary Blinken spoke to NATO Members in Brussels Belgium this week and recommitted America to its alliances and to the shared values that sustain them. Second, he said, the United States must modernize its alliances. “That begins with improving our military capabilities and readiness, to ensure that we maintain a strong and credible military deterrent… we must ensure that our strategic nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective, particularly in light of Russia’s modernization.” Blinken also said that the US will take steps to reduce further the role of US nuclear weapons. It appears the US will now rely more on international institutions. Blinken said the US must confront its own shortcomings and not pretend they don’t exist.

Blinken also pointed out the the United States must expand its ability to address transnational threats – especially climate change and pandemics like COVID-19. He said: “These challenges are so vast – and the measures needed to address them so far-reaching – that tackling them must be integrated into virtually everything we do and coordinated across a wide array of partners.” The third challenge he mentioned was that the US must weave together broader coalitions of allies and partners to address threats in the economic, technological, and informational realms. He called for a deepening of NATO-EU cooperation and greater collaboration on issues including cybersecurity, energy security, health security, and safeguarding critical infrastructure.

GERMANY

Although Germany is among the US’s closest allies, Secretary Blinken said Washington has “a real disagreement on Nord Stream 2 – that’s not a secret to anyone.” He added that the US is not going to let that stand in the way of the work on issues that are of direct concern to the citizens of the US and Germany. The pipeline exposes the Ukraine and Central Europe to Russian manipulation and coercion, and goes against Europe’s own stated energy security goals. Blinken said the US will continue to monitor activity to complete or certify the pipeline, and if that activity takes place, Washington will make a determination on the applicability of sanctions.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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