Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

NORTH KOREA

Officials from the United States and the United Kingdom met in London with industry leaders from maritime insurance companies, commodity traders, and other relevant parties, to discuss steps the private sector can take to prevent illicit shipping, trade, and other sanctions evasion activities that North Korea uses to generate revenue for its UN-prohibited nuclear and missile programs, according to the Office of the US State Department Spokesperson.

North Korea, despite UN sanctions, continues to rely heavily on illicit shipping activities. Discussions centered around proactive measures the maritime could employ to protect against the provision of insurance for vessels engaged in illicit, prohibited activities with North Korea, disrupting North Korean-linked shipping, and enhanced public-private cooperation.

Washington’s goal is to create a final, fully verifiable denuclearization of North Korea. The State Department announcement added that the “full implementation of North Korean-related UN Security Council resolutions by all countries is crucial to a successful diplomatic outcome. The international community must continue to implement and enforce these resolutions until North Korea denuclearizes.”

MAGNITSKY SANCTIONS

The State Department announced the United States imposed sanctions on seventeen Saudi Arabian individuals for serious human rights abuse resulting from their roles in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi at the Consulate of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul, Turkey, on October 2. A press statement issued by Secretary Pompeo stated that “This action was taken under the authority of Executive Order 13818, which implements and builds upon the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. As a result of this action, all of these individuals’ assets within U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. At the time of Khashoggi’s killing, these individuals occupied positions in the Royal Court and several ministries and offices of the Government of Saudi Arabia.”

Since the killing of Khashoggi, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has attempted to put distance between the Crown Prince and others connected to the assassination. Western leaders have almost uniformly condemned the action and demanded that the Saudi government take immediate punitive action to determine the details, and identity, of those involved in the killing.

NEW HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE STEERING COUNCIL

To further optimize the State Department and USAID’s humanitarian assistance, the Secretary of State announced he has established a new senior-level mechanism for coordinating and overseeing U.S. humanitarian assistance – the Humanitarian Assistance Steering Council. The
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purpose of the Council, he stated, “is to coordinate U.S. government efforts in order to achieve seamless, efficient, and effective delivery of humanitarian assistance overseas in support of U.S. foreign policy objectives, including promoting burden-sharing and UN humanitarian reform.”

UKRAINE

The State Department spokesperson announced: “The United States joins our European Allies and partners in condemning the November 11 sham “elections” in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. Yesterday’s illegitimate processes were an attempt by Moscow to institutionalize its Donbas proxies, the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.” These entities have no place within the Minsk agreements or within Ukraine’s constitutional government, and they should be dismantled along with the illegal armed formations.”

If Russia calculated the November 11 illegal “elections” would lead to international respect for its proxies, the international reaction proves it was mistaken, according to the Department. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has refused to monitor the election, calling it a “farce,” and the UN Security Council recently denounced Russia’s actions.

The European Union and the United States are in close alignment on this issue and plan to continue to impose Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia “until Moscow fully implements the Minsk agreements and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine,” according to the Department Spokesperson.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.