Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

MEXICO

In his first foreign trip since assuming office Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the American Embassy in Mexico virtually this week. According to the Secretary, the Consulate General in Monterrey, Mexico managed to “process more than a quarter million H-2 visas last year… Mission Mexico adjudicated more than 40 percent of all non-immigrant visas worldwide.” While the Biden Administration says that the US-Mexican border is closed to illegal immigration, it has not taken steps to continue securing it. Recently, President Biden ordered workers to stop construction of the wall protecting the southern border.

IMMIGRATION

President Biden is allowing in more immigrants. This week he rescinded presidential proclamation 10014, entitled Proclamation Suspending Entry of Immigrants Who Present Risks to the U.S. Labor Market During the Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Outbreak. The President also suspended the sections of presidential proclamation 10052 and 10131 which continued presidential proclamation 10014 past its original expiration. These proclamations restricted the issuance of certain immigrant visas, according to the State Department Spokesperson.

SAUDI ARABIA

A report declassified by the Biden Administration and released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Friday, February 26, says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the 2018 killing of U.S.-based journalist and Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.

“We base this assessment on the Crown Prince’s control of decision making in the Kingdom, the direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muhammad bin Salman’s protective detail in the operation, and the Crown Prince’s support for using violent measures to silence dissidents abroad, including Khashoggi,” the report said.

CHINA

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The Chinese government may have more avenues to influence US foreign policy than previously recognized. It appears William Burns, the nominee for CIA Director, may have lied about his China connections on Wednesday while testifying before Congress. The think tank he leads, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), is linked to a front group for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). CEIP received a quarter to half million dollars between 2015 and 2017 from the China-US Exchange Foundation (CUSEF). Burns claims he cut ties to that company “not long after” he took over CEIP. However, the record indicates that more than 14 months after that the Chinese founder of CUSEF delivered a pro-Beijing speech at the think tank concerning China’s control over the South China Sea. All Burns was willing to admit in testimony was that CUSEF was used by the CCP to “sway public opinion” and build influence” to benefit CCP interests.

IRAN

It appears the State Department believes the IAEA and Iran when it comes to compliance issues surrounding the Iranian nuclear weapons program. “We fully support IAEA Director General Grossi’s efforts to ensure full implementation of IAEA verification in Iran and we have full faith and confidence in the IAEA,” according to a State Department Spokesperson. When asked about past compliance issues by a reporter and previous Iranian violations concerning heavy water and storage issues the State Department Spokesperson disagreed with the reporter and said Iran through May 2018 was in “complete compliance.”

UNITED NATIONS

The Biden Administration announced this week the US intends to seek election to a seat on the UN Human Rights Council starting in January 2022. “The United States has long been a champion of human rights. If elected to the Human Rights Council, we will use the opportunity to be a leading voice within the Council for promoting respect for human rights,” said the State Department Spokesperson. Previously, the Trump Administration questioned its value as members of the UNHRC included countries that regularly violated basic human rights of their own citizens, including China, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, and Egypt.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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