Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Cuban Military Personnel Sanctioned

Last week, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added three Cuban military-owned companies to its Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN List). All property and interests in property of these entities that are in the United States or in the possession or control of persons subject to U.S. jurisdiction continue to be blocked and must be reported to OFAC.

The companies are Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA (GAESA), FINCIMEX, and Kave Coffee S.A. GAESA is the Cuban military’s largest company, which controls large portions of Cuba’s economy for the military’s benefit. Cuban military-controlled FINCIMEX funnels remittances through channels that disproportionately benefit the Cuban military. Kave Coffee S.A., a coffee company domiciled in Havana and incorporated in Panama, is part of an international network of Cuban-owned companies maintained by the Cuban military and used to evade the U.S. embargo.

The revenue generated from the Cuban military’s economic activities is used to entrench the Cuban military’s control, prop up the Cuban Communist Party’s power, oppress the Cuban people, and fund Cuba’s interference in Venezuela. Today’s action demonstrates the United States’ long-standing commitment to ending economic practices that disproportionately benefit the Cuban government or its military, intelligence, and security agencies or personnel, at the expense of the Cuban people. It also demonstrates the United States’ commitment to disrupting Cuba’s malign support for the illegitimate Maduro regime in Venezuela.

The United States will continue to support the Cuban people in their desire for a democratic government and respect for human rights, including freedom of religion, expression, and association. Until these rights and freedoms are respected, we will continue to hold the regime accountable.

Nicaraguan Police Chief Sanctioned

Last week, the United States imposed sanctions on Marvin Ramiro Aguilar Garcia, Walmaro Antonio Gutierrez Mercado, and Fidel de Jesus Dominguez Alvarez, pursuant to Executive Order 13851, “Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua.” These three individuals enable and benefit from the Ortega administration’s corruption and abuse of the Nicaraguan people.

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In this designation, the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is promoting accountability for Nicaraguan government officials who further the Ortega regime’s attacks on Nicaragua’s democracy.

Marvin Ramiro Aguilar Garcia is the Vice President of the Supreme Court of Justice, National Political Secretary of the Sandinista Leadership Council, and a member of the Council for the Administration and Judicial Career of the Nicaraguan Supreme Court of Justice, which ensures regime supporters are selected for key posts. As the National Political Secretary, Aguilar directly advises President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo and reportedly coordinates the targeting of pro-democracy opposition members.

Walmaro Antonio Gutierrez Mercado is a Deputy of the National Assembly and president of the Production, Economic and Budget Commission, and has publicly advocated for the controversial Foreign Agents Law, which specifies that certain individuals and entities in Nicaragua that receive foreign funds must register and make detailed monthly reports to the Interior Ministry. We anticipate that this law, which contemplates fines and other legal sanctions for noncompliance, will be invoked to restrict the civil and political rights of certain individuals or organizations that the government arbitrarily deems to be a threat.

Fidel de Jesus Dominguez Alvarez, Chief of the Nicaraguan National Police in Leon, has allegedly directed assaults on many Nicaraguan citizens and journalists. Specifically, Dominguez reportedly directed the beating of a journalist by Nicaraguan National Police officials. Dominguez was also reportedly involved in the abuse and beatings of a former opposition deputy and other Ortega opponents.

The United States government will continue to take the steps necessary to support the Nicaraguan people and pressure the Ortega regime to cease its repressive activities, respect human rights, and allow the conditions for free and fair elections that would restore democracy to Nicaragua.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.