Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

Venezuela

The United States continues to support Interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the Venezuelan people in their struggle to restore democracy in their country. From December 7 to 12, the Venezuelan people will have the opportunity to voice their opinion of the illegitimate Maduro regime through the Consulta Popular, or People’s Vote. The “Consulta” is being held under the authority of the legitimate National Assembly and in accordance with the Venezuelan Constitution. It provides a platform for Venezuelans, including those forced to flee abroad under threat of persecution, torture, or death, to demand free and fair presidential and legislative elections. It is an opportunity to voice their support for a transition to democracy in Venezuela and reject the regime’s fraudulent legislative elections.

The Venezuelan electoral process has been reduced to a farce by the Maduro dictatorship. In the face of tremendous repression, the Consulta Popular is giving the Venezuelan people a voice. While the “Consulta” will not end the humanitarian, political, and economic crises caused by Maduro, it is a courageous step to fairly and transparently give a voice to the suffering of the Venezuelan people and establish momentum towards truly free and fair elections for president and the National Assembly.

The democratically elected National Assembly and the voice of the Venezuelan people are the only things standing in the way of authoritarianism in Venezuela. The international community can best support democracy in Venezuela by uniting behind the Venezuelan people as they raise their voices to demand an end to the brutal Maduro dictatorship and a return to democracy.

Slovenia

Today, the United States and Slovenia signed a Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Strategic Civil Nuclear Cooperation (NCMOU), which improves our cooperation on energy security and strengthens our diplomatic and economic relationship.

Dr. Christopher Ford, who is performing the duties of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, signed for the United States, and Mr. Jernej Vrtovec, Minister of Infrastructure, signed for Slovenia. The United States and Slovenia have been partners in civil nuclear energy since 1975, when construction began on the Westinghouse nuclear power plant at Krsko that has been supplying clean energy to the region since 1983.

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Nuclear Cooperation MOUs are diplomatic mechanisms that strengthen and expand strategic ties between the United States and a partner country by providing a framework for cooperation on civil nuclear issues and for engagement between experts from government, industry, national laboratories, and academic institutions.

European Union

The United States welcomes the European Union’s adoption of its global human rights sanctions framework. Today, on the occasion of International Human Rights Day, we note that this groundbreaking accomplishment will further protect human rights worldwide.

The EU’s new measures give its member states a powerful tool to promote accountability for human rights abuse on a global scale. The new authorities will complement the ongoing efforts of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada to sanction human rights abusers, further enhancing our already strong partnership geared toward protecting human rights and deterring future abuse globally. Europe will have a steadfast partner in the United States on this program, and we encourage the EU to adopt its first designations as soon as possible.

The United States will continue to seek out additional allies and partners to use all the tools at our disposal to deny human rights abusers the benefit of access to the U.S. and international financial systems.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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