Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CYPRUS

This week Clarke Cooper, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, was in Greece conducting talks concerning the current security environment in the East Mediterranean region. He said the US needs to see further assurances from Cyprus on its “ability to deny port access to Russian naval vessels.” According to Cooper, as Cyprus takes a greater role in the Eastern Mediterranean and expanded responsibilities supportive of European Union as well as NATO requirements, “we do need to be more interoperable with them, and that does require addressing the portage issue.” In September Russia held two naval exercises in the energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean, with Russian warships conducting firing exercises. The head of the Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow, Igor Korotchenko, said the exercises were designed as “a show of force by Russia against NATO.”

CHINA

“…the Chinese Communist Party is highly capable, ambitious, and hostile to our basic political principles: democracy, openness, and individual dignity,” according to David Stilwell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. At an address this week at the Hoover Institution Stillwell spoke about the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy, which is centered on the observation that we are in “a geopolitical competition between free and repressive visions of world order.” Influence and interference operations are fundamental to how the Chinese Communist Party engages with the world. Stillwell said we can’t think of China as simply a trade partner or the home of a great civilization. The Chinese Communist Party’s strategy implicates private as well as governmental targets around the world, he added, and it why all institutions in American society need to “understand that strategy and adopt measures to manage risk, counter coercion, and protect free expression.”

HONG KONG

“The United States strongly condemns the arrest and detention of three student democracy activists and calls on Hong Kong authorities to release those that remain detained immediately,” according to Secretary of State Pompeo in a statement. The Beijing-controlled Hong Kong government continues to stifle dissent, repress public opinion, and use law enforcement for political purposes. There have been a number of arrests, detentions, and harassments of pro-democracy protesters.

Pompeo said the People’s Republic of China has “violated its international obligations under the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration,” while the Chinese Communist Party and its Hong Kong proxies crush the promised autonomy of Hong Kong, and “eviscerate Hong Kong’s respect for human rights,” including the rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.

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IRAN

“Instead of using its natural resource wealth to improve living conditions for the Iranian people, the Iranian regime prefers to pawn its oil to fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and support its terror proxies as they sow chaos and destruction around the Middle East. We will not let that happen,” according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo in a statement release on October 31, 2020. The US also condemned attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis against Saudi Arabia. The attacks were launched indiscriminately towards Riyadh, and risked the lives of innocent civilians, including Americans. Pompeo said: “These acts demonstrate that the Houthis are not serious about seeking a political solution in order to bring peace to Yemen. The United States calls on Iran to stop smuggling weapons to the Houthis in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and to stop enabling the Houthis’ aggressive acts against Yemen and towards its neighbors, including Saudi Arabia.”

MALDIVES

Secretary Pompeo announced that the United States is opening its first permanent embassy in the Maldives. He said the United States wants to continue to build out what has been a “really important” security and diplomatic relationship. The Maldives are located just southwest of India and are in a strategic area where China is increasing its naval activity and influence operations.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.