Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

OCEANS 2018

During the “Our Ocean Conference 2018” in Bali, Indonesia, the United States announced 15 commitments to strengthen sustainable management of marine resources; prevent plastic and other debris from entering the ocean; support research and observation of ocean ecosystems; and foster partnerships promoting maritime security and a sustainable blue economy.

The State Department noted that American efforts include, among other projects: two new five-year programs in Madagascar to improve marine and coastal resources; a new five-year regional activity in Central American Regional Coastal Biodiversity Project; a three-year collaboration between the U.S. AID and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reduce threats to biodiversity in the Caribbean; and also $5 million from NOAA for ocean observing technology to support the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Project, an international effort to improve our understanding of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ocean’s role in weather and climate.

IRANIAN HIT SQUADS

In a media interview this week Secretary of State Pompeo discussed the threat from Iranian hit squads plotting to commit assassinations in Denmark, France and Albania. Iran, long recognized as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, sent Iranian intelligence operatives into Europe for the third effort in recent times.

Pompeo said that sanctions which the previous administration had relieved against Iran are “snapping back, coming back into effect, and it’s having a real impact on the Iranian leadership. This is important…” in our efforts to get the Iranians to change their behavior. IT will take time and patience.

The Secretary added that: “We are hopeful that [Foreign Minister] Zarif’s boss, the ayatollah, the man who actually makes all the decisions – it’s not Mr. Zarif, it’s the ayatollah – that the ayatollah will see the error of his ways and will come to understand that it’s in Iran’s best interest to change the nature of the activities that Iran is conducting all around the world and become a normal nation.” President Trump has stated that once Iran is in line with other normal nation-states we will welcome the country back into the family of nations.

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IRAN SANCTIONS

President Trump withdrew the United States from the fatally flawed nuclear deal with Iran earlier this year. The new campaign goal, using economic sanctions going into effect on November 5, aims to fundamentally alter Iran’s behavior through deprivation of the revenue it uses to export terrorism. This is Round 19 of economic sanctions and adds over 700 names to the list of blocked entities.

US Secretary of State Pompeo announced that “These sanctions hit at the core areas of Iran’s economy.” He added that to maximize the impact on Iran, Washington is working with other countries by cutting Iranian exports of oil as much as possible. He pointed out that the Administration may issue temporary allotments to eight jurisdictions vs. the 20 allotted during the Obama Administration, multiple times between 2012 and 2015.

Secretary Pompeo said the eight jurisdictions receiving the temporary allotments have aided the US efforts on other significant fronts. At this time Iran’s crude oil exports already are reduced by one million barrels. With the imposition of new sanctions on November 5, Secretary Pompeo explained, “100% of the revenue that Iran receives from the sale of crude oil will be held in foreign accounts and can be used by Iran only for humanitarian trade or bilateral trade in non-sanctioned goods and services.”

“This massive reduction since May of last year is three to five times more than what many analysts were projecting when President Trump announced our withdrawal from the deal back in May. We exceeded our expectations for one simple reason: Maximum pressure means maximum pressure,” according to the Secretary of State. The United States is making exceptions for humanitarian assistance to the people of Iran, including food,agriculture commodities, medicine, and medical devices.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.