Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its proxies aim to make Americans receptive to Beijing’s form of authoritarianism, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. In a Thursday interview he said the CCP “is hard at work at the state level.” Pompeo pointed out that they have rated every government essentially a friend, foe or somewhere in between. They also are evaluating whether American governors are working in ways that benefit them, he said. In the United States the CCP works actively to develop relationships with state elected officials. When the Secretary was in Wisconsin on Wednesday, he talked about China’s using their “United Front development programs to undermine our democracy and to move the direction of opinion in the direction of their authoritarian regime.” Washington is working to actively push back on aggressive moves conducted by China inside the US.

IRAN

President Obama and Vice President Biden entered into a bad nuclear deal in Iran. Pompeo said it was “just crazy,” as it presented a clear pathway to a nuclear weapon, and that this was unacceptable for the security of the Middle East, Israel, and the United States.

The Trump Administration has “flipped the script,” according to Pompeo, and spent the last three years and few months working to “deny the regime the money, the resources, the wealth, the capacity to build that nuclear weapon.” Pompeo argued that it won’t happen while President Trump is in office. He said that America is safer now, and that the Administration has created the conditions for the good news out of the Middle East earlier in the month concerning the UAE-Israeli relations.

President Trump previously had said the US took out Qasem Soleimani, one of the premier architects of the terror campaign around the world, and “there is no reason to not continue the diplomatic, economic, and security efforts that this administration has undertaken over these years.” It has weakened the regime and made America safer, according to Pompeo. He added that the United States welcomes the return of virtually all previously terminated UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror and anti-Semitism.

ISRAEL/BAHRAIN/UAE

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For 40 years the West believed that pace and stability in the Middle East were not possible until the Israel-Palestinian problem was resolved. It served as an informal “precondition” for improved relationships among Israelis and Arabs. Pompeo said: “The Abraham Accords are the classic overnight success that took forever.”

President Trump, according to Pompeo, “knew that couldn’t be the case, and so for several years we’ve been working on a set of actions that would create conditions where great leaders like the crown prince and the United Arab Emirates and the senior leadership in Bahrain now have acknowledged that Israel has a right to exist, that it is the Jewish homeland, and they want to do business with them and they want to have diplomatic relationships with them and economic and security relationships.” With the Abraham Accords there now is a decreased risk in the Middle East and more opportunities for peace, according to the Secretary. He also pointed out how wrong critics were when they said that moving to the US Embassy to Jerusalem would cause more conflict.

CZECH REPUBLIC

On Friday Secretary Pompeo spoke at the Prague 5G Security Conference about the launch of the Clean Network Initiative. He said it is an effort to “safeguard our citizens’ privacy and our companies’ sensitive information from untrusted vendors.” The Clean Network’s comprehensive approach is rooted in the Prague Proposals, and other internationally accepted digital trust standards. More than 30 countries and their carriers have joined the Clean Network, and many of the world’s biggest telecommunications companies are becoming Clean Telcos. Pompeo also announced to the conference that the United States is expanding globally the Digital Connectivity and Cybersecurity Partnership launched in 2018. The program promotes increased connectivity and a competitive global marketplace for trusted 5G vendors. “The EU’s 5G Toolbox, which ensures the security of its 5G networks, is another initiative the US strongly supports.” said Pompeo. The US goal is to deny malign actors, such as China and its CCP leadership, access to foreign nations’ sensitive data.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.