Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

NATO

The US is holding European countries accountable for contributing their share of the NATO budget, according to Secretary of State Michel Pompeo. He added that in a second Trump Administration the US will be an active member of the organization. “I think General Secretary Stoltenberg, the leader of NATO, said there is now $400 billion more that will be invested into NATO. It’s a direct result of President Trump’s leadership. NATO is stronger under President Trump than it has been in previous administrations,” said Pompeo.

CHINA

According to the Department of Defense China now has the world’s largest Navy. There are some discrepancies when it comes to ship-to-ship equivalence, but China is developing a world-class blue water Navy. In a recent interview, Pompeo said that this is something that has been ongoing for a long time but that is accelerating. “The good news…,” he added, “…is President Trump has made sure that we have the capabilities that we need, whether it’s the designation of the Space Force so that we have the capacity to compete there, the work that we’re doing to make it more difficult for China to use Huawei and its technology to pose threats to us as well, they’re connected in their civil and military efforts, or simply the fact that we have now spent more than $700 billion two years running to make sure that our military has the capability that it needs.

Pompeo does worry about the Chinese Communist Party increasing military capacity, he said. But he also is confident that President Trump will put the US in a position to make sure that America is safe.

EQUADOR

The Galapagos Islands are being threatened by overfishing from Chinese commercial fleets that have encroached on Equador’s exclusive economic zone which is a fragile environmental area. Currently, there are 274 Chinese fishing vessels inside Equadoran waters. Pompeo called this predatory economic activity and added that “This is another exemplar, whether it’s in Africa and the predatory activities taking place in Africa, they – the Chinese Communist Party model today is to do what has been part of Chinese history for a long time: to create vassal states, tributary states that have to pay tribute to Beijing as the Middle Kingdom.” Pompeo said that the us has been working on a diplomatic solution for months to avoid an open conflict.

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VENEZUELA

In a statement released from Secretary Pompeo he said that “The Maduro regime’s announcement of conditional dismissal of criminal charges against roughly one-third of the political prisoners it holds does not solve, nor even address, Venezuela’s underlying political crisis. Hundreds of political prisoners remain, and like those now offered house arrest or an end (for the moment) to their criminal cases, none of these Venezuelans should ever have been imprisoned for a single day.”

He pointed out that the condition of democracy in Venezuela remains “dire.” The dismissal of charges are conditional, according to Pompeo, meaning that Venezuelan officials have threatened to rescind the benefit if any individuals “return to any act of terrorism, violence, or coup-mongering,” as arbitrarily determined by the regime.

Conditions for free and fair elections do not exist in Venezuela and the release of a number of political prisoners does not change that, according to the State Department. “None of the political parties whose leadership was removed and their names, symbols, and assets stolen by the regime have been restored, including parties from the left that challenge the regime’s control of Chavez’s political legacy,” noted Pompeo. Many politicians who oppose the Maduro regime still are not allowed to run for public office nor have they had their political rights restored. There is no freedom of the press or expression, or assembly in the country.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.