Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

TAIWAN

Taiwan and the US are developing closer ties in the wake of recent Chinese CCP aggression and the Covid-19 virus. This week, after positive discussions on agriculture, President Tsai Ing-wen announced a major change in trade policy with the United States, which addresses outstanding issues in beef and pork imports. On August 27, the announcement from President Tsai’s office said it is removing obstacles to “pave the way for advancing the bilateral Taiwan-US trade relationship” by lifting several restrictions to provide US access to Taiwan’s domestic meat market.

Taiwan’s Representative to the United States Bi-khim Hsiao called the effort “timely” and said that it will “…create the infrastructure to fortify and deepen the already significant trade relationship between reliable and like-minded partners.” Taiwan is the United States’ 9^th largest trade partner and 7^th largest export market. Washington is taking a stronger stand against Chinese human rights abuses, military aggression, unfair trade practices and other transgressions among the community of nations. Taiwan appears ready to become a critical force in the realignment of global supply chains.

CHINA

The United States announced it is placing restrictions on Chinese state-owned companies and executives due to the dispute in the South China Seas which has been escalating in recent weeks. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said that since 2013, China has “used its state-owned enterprises to dredge and reclaim more than 3,000 acres on disputed features in the South China Sea, destabilizing the region, trampling on the sovereign rights of its neighbors, and causing untold environmental devastation.”

GREAT BRITAIN

The United States is dismayed to learn that the “Chinese Communist Party’s coercive bullying tactics against our friends in the United Kingdom continues,” according to the State Department. This week British bank HSBC has reportedly prevented Hong Kong-based executives at Next Media, a well-known publisher of pro-democracy publications, from accessing their credit cards and personal bank accounts.” It noted that the bank is thus maintaining accounts for individuals who have been sanctioned for denying freedom for Hong Kongers, while shutting accounts for those seeking freedom.

ISRAEL

Secretary Pompeo was in Israel this past week for discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. After the meeting in the Prime Minister’s office the two leaders spoke with the media. Pompeo reassured Israel that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” He committed to using every tool that the US has to ensure that Iran can’t get access to high-end weapon systems or air defense systems.

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“It’s time to publicly account for the fact that Iran is on the cusp on October 18th of having access to those weapons and the money that will come from their sale of those weapons that will be used to inflict real harm, not only in the Middle East but in Europe as well,” he added.

UKRAINE

During Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Beigun’s August 26-27 visit to Ukraine, he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Shmyhal, Deputy Prime Minister Reznikov, and Foreign Minister Kuleba to discuss a broad range of multilateral and regional issues, including Ukraine’s reform agenda, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and the situation in Belarus. He reaffirmed unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to the State Department, “The United States attaches great importance to the success of Ukraine as a free and democratic state with a flourishing market economy.” American policy is centered on supporting Ukraine in the face of continued Russian aggression as it advances reforms to strengthen democratic institutions, fight corruption, and promote conditions for economic growth and competition.

IRAQ

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq Joey Hood said that recent discussions with Iraqi officials reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to a long-term strategic partnership with the country and respect for its sovereignty. Iraq pledged to protect US and other intentional guests from attacks by Iran-backed militias. Iraq and the US are expected to hold additional meetings in the near future covering a wide range of topics including Iraq’s preparations for credible elections, protecting civil society, helping its religious and ethnic components recover from ISIS atrocities.

The two countries signed nine Memorandums of Understanding on development, finance, health, and energy and the US announced a gift of $204 million more in humanitarian assistance and $10 million for UNAMI’s election support efforts in Iraq.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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